Geopolitics › Russia & Eurasia
Russia
Russian Federation since 1991· Country
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
The world's largest country by area, with about 144–146 million people and the biggest nuclear arsenal, at war with Ukraine since 2022.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
Formally a federal presidential republic, in practice an authoritarian system under Vladimir Putin. GDP roughly $2.2–2.5 trillion at market rates, depending on the ruble. Strengths: oil, gas, metals and grain exports, nuclear weapons, a UN veto and a war-hardened army. Weaknesses: a shrinking population, sanctions, dependence on commodities and on China, and near-stagnant growth (about 1% forecast for 2026). Partners: China, Belarus, Iran, North Korea; rivals: NATO and Ukraine. Investing: closed to most Western investors since 2022, when index providers dropped Russian stocks.
Why it matters
Its war, nuclear arsenal and energy exports make Russia, in NATO's view, the main military threat to Europe and a key partner for China, Iran and North Korea.
Key facts and numbers
Rosstat, IMF and central-bank data (with caveats about wartime secrecy), sanctions records and open-source military tracking.
What to watch
How long Russia can fund the war as oil revenue shrinks, and how stable the system would be after Putin, who turns 74 in October 2026.
Inside this (7)
Connections (16)
▸Russia invaded UkraineFact
The relationship
Russia invaded Ukraine twice: in 2014 it seized Crimea and armed separatists in the Donbas; on February 24, 2022 it launched a full-scale invasion from Russia, Belarus and Crimea, aiming to take Kyiv and topple the government. That failed, but Russia still occupies about a fifth of Ukraine.
Since when and why
Crimea, February–March 2014; Donbas from April 2014; a full-scale attack on fronts from Kyiv to Kherson on February 24, 2022.
How we know
Overwhelming evidence: video, satellite imagery, captured soldiers and Russia's own statements; the UN General Assembly condemned the invasion 141–5 in March 2022.
What to watch
Disputed: Russia calls it a defensive 'special military operation' against NATO expansion; Ukraine and most states call it unprovoked aggression. Moscow's full war aims are debated.
▸EU €90B loan to Ukraine and frozen Russian assets keeps frozen the assets of RussiaFact
The relationship
Alongside the loan, the EU locked about €210 billion of Russian central-bank reserves in place indefinitely, instead of renewing the freeze every six months, and tied their release to Russia paying reparations to Ukraine. The money stays immobilized as leverage, though the plan to lend it directly was dropped.
Since when and why
Brussels, December 2025; most of the assets sit at Euroclear, a Belgian securities depository holding about €185 billion; Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever led resistance to using them.
How we know
Council decisions and Euroclear's financial reports document the frozen sums; Russia's central bank has sued Euroclear in a Moscow court.
What to watch
Disputed: Russia calls the freeze theft; the EU calls it a lawful countermeasure. Whether the assets are confiscated, returned or traded in a peace deal is open.
▸Germany lost cheap pipeline gas from RussiaFact
The relationship
For decades Germany bought cheap Russian pipeline gas, about 55% of its gas imports in 2021, betting that trade would tame Moscow. After the 2022 invasion Russia cut Nord Stream flows and the pipelines were blown up. Germany built LNG terminals and turned to Norway, but higher energy costs hit its industry hard.
Since when and why
Baltic Sea: Nord Stream flows halted on August 31, 2022; explosions on September 26, 2022 wrecked three of four pipeline strings; Germany's first LNG terminal opened in December 2022.
How we know
Gas-flow data, seismic records of the blasts and German import statistics; German prosecutors seek Ukrainian suspects, one extradited from Italy in 2025.
What to watch
Who ordered the Nord Stream sabotage is unresolved; Kyiv denies involvement. Whether Russian gas returns after the war is debated, though an EU law phases it out by late 2027.
▸Vladimir Putin leads RussiaFact
The relationship
Putin rules Russia through a 'power vertical': loyal governors, security services, state-controlled television and tamed tycoons. Elections continue without real opposition, and he alone sets war and foreign policy. Constitutional changes in 2020 reset his term count, allowing him to stay until 2036.
Since when and why
The Kremlin, Moscow; president 2000–08 and since 2012; most recently re-elected in March 2024 with a reported 87%, a vote Western governments called neither free nor fair.
How we know
Election results, the 2020 constitutional amendments and decades of reporting on Russian governance; independent polling inside Russia is limited by repression.
What to watch
How much genuine support he has, and whether elites would stay loyal in a military or economic crisis, are hard to measure.
▸Russia claims to have annexed Russian-occupied Ukraine (including Crimea)Disputed
The relationship
Russia staged referendums under occupation, then declared Crimea (2014) and four mainland regions (2022) part of Russia, writing them into its constitution. It now demands that Ukraine withdraw from the rest of Donetsk as a condition for peace.
Since when and why
Crimea annexed March 18, 2014; Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson claimed on September 30, 2022, in a Kremlin ceremony.
How solid?
The annexation decrees are public; independent observers rejected the referendums, and the UN General Assembly voted 143–5 in October 2022 that the annexations are invalid.
What to watch
Disputed: Russia says residents chose Russia; Ukraine and most states call it illegal. The US floated recognizing Crimea as Russian in 2025, which Kyiv rejects.
▸Russia is a member of OPEC+Fact
The relationship
Russia, among the world's top three oil producers, joined OPEC's members in the 2016 Declaration of Cooperation that created OPEC+, and co-leads it with Saudi Arabia. Joint cuts helped lift prices after the 2014–16 crash. Since 2022 sanctions have forced Russia to sell at discounts, and it has often pumped above its quota.
Since when and why
Vienna, December 2016; Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak represents Moscow. A brief split in March 2020 triggered a Saudi–Russian price war.
How we know
OPEC+ communiqués and quota tables, and production data from the IEA and OPEC secondary sources comparing Russian output with its targets.
What to watch
How well Russia complies, given wartime secrecy over output data, and whether Saudi and Russian interests stay aligned as sanctions and the UAE's exit reshape the group.
▸Russia holds the largest arsenal of Nuclear weapons and proliferationFact
The relationship
Russia inherited the Soviet arsenal and holds about 5,500 warheads, the world's largest stockpile. Since 2022 Putin has used nuclear warnings to deter NATO involvement in Ukraine, lowered the threshold for use in a November 2024 doctrine, de-ratified the test-ban treaty in 2023 and announced tests of new nuclear-powered weapons in 2025.
Since when and why
Moscow; nuclear warnings from February 2022, the doctrine revised November 19, 2024, and Burevestnik cruise-missile and Poseidon torpedo tests announced in October 2025.
How we know
Russia's published nuclear doctrine, Kremlin statements, SIPRI and Federation of American Scientists estimates, and US intelligence assessments.
What to watch
How serious the warnings are, and whether Russia would ever use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine; US officials reportedly saw the risk peak in late 2022.
▸New START expiry: no US–Russia nuclear limits removed treaty limits on RussiaFact
The relationship
With New START gone, nothing legally caps Russia's deployed strategic warheads or lets US inspectors check them. Russia can load extra warheads onto missiles such as the Yars and Sarmat, and its newest systems, the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo, were never covered by the treaty.
Since when and why
Expired February 5, 2026, after Russia suspended participation in February 2023; inspections had stopped in 2020.
How we know
The treaty's text and expiry date, Russian Foreign Ministry statements and US State Department reports on Russian compliance.
What to watch
Whether Moscow actually expands its deployed forces, or keeps to the old caps to save money and draw Washington into new talks.
▸North Korea (DPRK) signed a mutual-defense treaty with RussiaFact
The relationship
Kim and Putin signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, whose Article 4 pledges immediate military aid if either is attacked, reviving a Cold War-style alliance. It legitimized North Korean arms and troop shipments to Russia and gave Pyongyang a second great-power protector besides China.
Since when and why
Signed in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024, during Putin's first visit in 24 years; in force from December 4, 2024.
How we know
The treaty text published by both governments; Moscow and Pyongyang later cited Article 4 to justify the Kursk deployment.
What to watch
Whether Russia would really fight for North Korea in a Korean war, and whether the alliance outlasts the Ukraine war.
▸Belarus is a close ally of RussiaFact
The relationship
Belarus depends on Russia for cheap energy, loans and its biggest market, and Moscow's backing saved Lukashenko during the 2020 protests. In return Belarus let Russian forces attack Ukraine from its soil, hosts Russian nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile, and holds joint exercises, though its own army has not joined the fighting.
Since when and why
Union State treaty signed December 1999; Russian troops crossed from Belarus toward Kyiv on February 24, 2022; nuclear weapons deployed from 2023.
How we know
Treaties, satellite imagery of the 2022 troop movements and statements by both leaders; Russia keeps control of the nuclear warheads.
What to watch
How much autonomy Lukashenko keeps, as his prisoner deals with the US suggest, and whether Russia would absorb Belarus after he leaves.
▸Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict and 2025 peace deal weakened the influence of RussiaWidely agreed
The relationship
Russia was Armenia's treaty ally and the region's power broker, with peacekeepers in Karabakh after 2020. When they stood aside during Azerbaijan's 2023 offensive, Armenia froze its role in the Russian-led CSTO alliance and turned West. The 2025 deal, brokered by Washington, left Moscow sidelined.
Since when and why
Nagorno-Karabakh, September 2023; Russian peacekeepers left in 2024; White House summit on August 8, 2025; Pashinyan's party won the June 2026 election on a westward course.
How solid?
Armenian government decisions on the CSTO, the US-hosted summit, and Pashinyan's re-election with about 50% of the vote are documented.
What to watch
Russia still has a base at Gyumri in Armenia and major trade leverage; whether its influence is lost or merely paused is debated.
▸Iran supplied Shahed drones to RussiaFact
The relationship
From 2022 Iran sent Russia Shahed-136 one-way attack drones, cheap flying bombs used against Ukrainian cities and power plants, then helped Russia build its own version, the Geran-2, at Alabuga in Tatarstan. Russia now makes thousands a month, including decoys; Iran reportedly still supplies some components.
Since when and why
First used in Ukraine in September 2022; the Alabuga factory began production in 2023; Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership treaty in January 2025.
How we know
Drone wreckage analyzed by Conflict Armament Research and others, US and UK intelligence, and sanctions; Iran admitted sending some drones before the war began.
What to watch
What Russia gave Iran in return, such as fighter jets or air-defense help, and how much it aided Tehran during the 2026 war, remain unclear.
▸Wagner Group and Russia's Africa Corps is controlled by RussiaFact
The relationship
Wagner was nominally private but funded and armed by the Russian state. After Prigozhin's June 2023 mutiny and his death in a plane crash that August, the Defense Ministry, through deputy minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, took over the African operations as the Africa Corps, under direct state command.
Since when and why
Moscow; the Africa Corps emerged in late 2023 and replaced Wagner in Mali in June 2025.
How we know
Putin's June 2023 admission that the state fully financed Wagner, Defense Ministry announcements and Yevkurov's visits to Sahel capitals.
What to watch
How much independence remaining Wagner units keep, as in the Central African Republic, and how much military intelligence, the GRU, directs them.
▸India's multi-alignment strategy keeps arms and oil ties with RussiaFact
The relationship
Russia is still India's largest arms supplier, including S-400 air defenses, though its share has fallen. After 2022 India became a top buyer of discounted Russian crude, rising from about 2% of its oil imports to over a third. US tariffs and a February 2026 trade deal pressed it to stop, but the 2026 Hormuz crisis pushed purchases back up.
Since when and why
Indian refiners such as Reliance and Nayara; 50% US tariffs on India from August 2025; a US waiver during the Hormuz crisis in March 2026; India said in August 2026 it would keep buying.
How we know
Ship-tracking and customs data, SIPRI arms-transfer figures, and official US and Indian statements.
What to watch
Whether India truly winds down Russian oil once Gulf supply normalizes, and how reliable Russia remains as an arms supplier while fighting its own war.
▸Afghanistan under the Taliban was first recognized by RussiaFact
The relationship
Russia became the first country to formally recognize the Taliban government, accepting its ambassador. Moscow wants Taliban help against Islamic State–Khorasan, which killed about 145 people at a Moscow concert hall in 2024, plus trade routes and influence in Central Asia. China and others host Taliban envoys without formal recognition.
Since when and why
Russia lifted its terrorist designation of the Taliban in April 2025 and announced recognition on July 3, 2025.
How we know
Statements by Russia's Foreign Ministry and the Taliban; the UN has still not seated the Taliban government.
What to watch
Whether recognition buys Moscow real leverage over Taliban policy, and whether the Taliban can or will curb Islamic State–Khorasan.
▸Climate change and the Arctic opens Arctic sea routes along RussiaWidely agreed
The relationship
The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the global average, thinning sea ice along Russia's northern coast. That lengthens the shipping season on the Northern Sea Route, which can cut Asia–Europe voyages by roughly a third versus Suez. Russia controls access, runs the world's only nuclear icebreaker fleet and ships Arctic LNG and oil to Asia.
Since when and why
Russia's Arctic coast from Murmansk to the Bering Strait; traffic is mostly Russian energy cargo, with growing Chinese transits, including the first Arctic container express from China to western Europe in 2025.
How solid?
Satellite sea-ice records (NSIDC), peer-reviewed Arctic warming studies, and Russian Northern Sea Route traffic statistics.
What to watch
How soon the route works year-round, whether sanctions and insurance costs limit it, and the dispute over Russia's claim to regulate it as internal waters.