Geopolitics › Middle East & North Africa
Iran
Islamic Republic since 1979· Country
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
A theocratic Islamic Republic of about 90 million, at war with the US and Israel since February 2026 and led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
About 91 million people; GDP perhaps $350–450 billion, hard to measure as the rial collapsed. Power rests with the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards; an elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, runs the government. Strengths: huge oil and gas reserves, missiles and drones, leverage over Hormuz. Weaknesses: sanctions, inflation above 40%, war damage, and a crackdown that killed thousands of protesters in January 2026 (estimates vary widely). Partners: China, Russia, BRICS, SCO. Rivals: the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia. Investing: closed to Western investors by sanctions.
Why it matters
Its nuclear program, militia network and grip on the Strait of Hormuz make it the Middle East's central flashpoint; the 2026 war pushed oil toward $120.
Key facts and numbers
IMF and World Bank estimates, Statistical Centre of Iran data, IAEA reports, and rights groups such as HRANA for protest deaths; Iran's own figures are lower. Internet blackouts limit verification. As of 2026.
What to watch
Outlook: whether the Islamic Republic survives the war and Ali Khamenei's death intact, fractures, or is taken over outright by the Revolutionary Guards is the region's biggest open question.
Inside this (6)
Connections (7)
▸Saudi Arabia competes for regional leadership with IranWidely agreed
The relationship
Since Iran's 1979 revolution the Sunni Saudi monarchy and Shia Iranian theocracy have competed through proxies in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Bahrain. China brokered a détente in 2023. In the 2026 war Iranian missiles and drones hit Saudi targets; Riyadh reportedly struck back inside Iran, then reached a de-escalation understanding with Tehran.
Since when and why
Diplomatic ruptures in 1988 and 2016; the 2019 Abqaiq attack briefly halved Saudi output; the Beijing deal of March 10, 2023; reported Saudi strikes inside Iran in spring 2026.
How solid?
Diplomatic records, the Beijing joint statement, US and UN findings on Abqaiq, and reporting citing Western and Iranian officials on the 2026 Saudi strikes.
What to watch
Debated: whether the rivalry is mainly sectarian or geopolitical, and whether the 2023 détente can survive the 2026 war.
▸Iran lost its key ally in SyriaFact
The relationship
For four decades Assad's Syria was Iran's only state ally in the Arab world and its land bridge for arms to Hezbollah. Iran spent billions and sent Revolutionary Guards to save Assad after 2011. His collapse in December 2024 ended that corridor, and the new government is hostile to Tehran.
Since when and why
Damascus, December 8, 2024, when HTS-led rebels took the capital and Assad fled to Moscow; Iranian personnel withdrew within days.
How we know
Iranian officials' own acknowledgments of the loss, reports of halted arms flows to Hezbollah, and the new Syrian government's rejection of any Iranian presence.
What to watch
Estimates of Iran's spending in Syria range widely, roughly $30–50 billion; whether Iran can rebuild influence through smuggling networks is debated.
▸Iran sells most of its oil to China (People's Republic of China)Fact
The relationship
Under US sanctions, Iran sells about 90% of its oil exports to China, mostly to small independent 'teapot' refineries in Shandong, at discounts and often relabeled as Malaysian. About 1.4 million barrels a day before the 2026 war, the trade kept Iran's economy afloat and gave China cheap fuel.
Since when and why
The trade grew after US sanctions returned in 2018, via ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia; the two signed a 25-year cooperation pact in March 2021.
How we know
Ship-tracking firms such as Kpler and Vortexa; Chinese customs show almost no Iranian oil, while recorded 'Malaysian' imports far exceed Malaysia's output.
What to watch
How far the war and Hormuz disruption cut flows (about half by mid-2026, per tracking data), and whether US sanctions on teapot refiners bite.
▸Iran supplied Shahed drones to RussiaFact
The relationship
From 2022 Iran sent Russia Shahed-136 one-way attack drones, cheap flying bombs used against Ukrainian cities and power plants, then helped Russia build its own version, the Geran-2, at Alabuga in Tatarstan. Russia now makes thousands a month, including decoys; Iran reportedly still supplies some components.
Since when and why
First used in Ukraine in September 2022; the Alabuga factory began production in 2023; Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership treaty in January 2025.
How we know
Drone wreckage analyzed by Conflict Armament Research and others, US and UK intelligence, and sanctions; Iran admitted sending some drones before the war began.
What to watch
What Russia gave Iran in return, such as fighter jets or air-defense help, and how much it aided Tehran during the 2026 war, remain unclear.
▸Strait of Hormuz is bordered by IranFact
The relationship
Iran's coast forms the strait's entire northern shore, with Oman's Musandam peninsula to the south. That geography, plus islands, mines, missiles and the Revolutionary Guards' fast attack boats, lets Tehran threaten the route; in 2026 it did, choking oil and LNG traffic.
Since when and why
Strait of Hormuz; Iran's 1971 takeover of Abu Musa and the Tunbs (claimed by the UAE), the 1980s 'Tanker War', tanker seizures in 2019 and 2023, and the 2026 closure.
How we know
Maritime charts, the UN Law of the Sea transit rules, shipping data and Iranian statements claiming control over passage in 2026.
What to watch
How long Iran could keep the strait closed against US naval power, and whether pipelines can bypass it at scale, are debated.
▸Sanctions and financial warfare squeeze IranFact
The relationship
US sanctions since 1979, tightened under 'maximum pressure' from 2018 and again in 2025, cut Iran off from the dollar system and most oil buyers; UN sanctions returned in September 2025. Before the 2026 war Iran still sold around 1.5 million barrels a day, mostly to Chinese refiners via its own shadow fleet, at deep discounts.
Since when and why
US Treasury actions from 1979; JCPOA relief 2016–18; Trump's February 2025 order restoring maximum pressure; UN snapback on September 28, 2025; a US naval blockade during the 2026 war.
How we know
Treasury and UN sanctions lists, tanker-tracking data from Kpler and others, and the rial's fall to about 1.5 million per dollar in early 2026.
What to watch
Debated: whether sanctions restrain Iran's behavior or entrench hardliners, and how much China's continued purchases blunt them.
▸Iran is debating withdrawal from Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)Fact
The relationship
Iran joined the NPT in 1970, which bars it from building nuclear weapons and requires IAEA inspections. After the 2025 strikes it curbed inspector access, and hardline lawmakers filed bills in March and September 2026 to quit, which takes three months' notice. The government says it still rejects nuclear weapons.
Since when and why
Iran's parliament in Tehran; bills filed on March 28 and in mid-September 2026, after the IAEA board referred Iran to the UN Security Council on September 9.
How we know
Iranian parliamentary records, President Pezeshkian's statements and IAEA board resolutions. Only North Korea has ever left the treaty.
What to watch
Unclear whether parliament has the votes (one MP predicted no more than 70) and whether Mojtaba Khamenei would approve leaving, which his father had opposed.