Geopolitics › Middle East & North Africa › Turkey (Türkiye)
Syria
Independent 1946; Assad fell Dec 8, 2024· Country
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
A country rebuilding after 13 years of civil war, ruled since Bashar al-Assad's fall in December 2024 by former rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
About 25 million people, with millions still refugees abroad; GDP only about $20–25 billion after a war that killed an estimated 500,000–600,000 people (estimates vary). A transitional government under interim President al-Sharaa, whose Islamist HTS group once had al-Qaeda ties. The US lifted most sanctions in 2025. Weaknesses: ruined infrastructure, sectarian killings of Alawites and Druze in 2025, Islamic State cells, Israeli troops in the south. Backers: Turkey and the Gulf states. Investing: no practical route for foreign investors.
Why it matters
Assad's fall cut Iran's land bridge to Hezbollah and opened Syria to Turkey, the Gulf and the West; its stability affects refugees, terrorism and Israel's border.
Key facts and numbers
UN and World Bank estimates (the Bank put reconstruction near $216 billion), Syrian Observatory for Human Rights casualty counts, US Treasury sanctions notices and the March 2025 constitutional declaration.
What to watch
Disputed: whether al-Sharaa's government becomes inclusive or entrenches Islamist one-man rule; full elections are promised only after a five-year transition.
Connections (6)
▸Turkey (Türkiye) is the main backer of SyriaWidely agreed
The relationship
Turkey backed Syria's rebels from 2011, hosted up to 3.7 million refugees and shielded the last rebel enclave in Idlib, where Ahmed al-Sharaa's HTS ruled. After Assad fell in December 2024 it became the new government's main patron, offering military training, energy and reconstruction deals, and pressing it to absorb the Kurdish-led SDF.
Since when and why
Ankara, Damascus and northern Syria since 2011; post-Assad defense cooperation from 2025; Erdoğan welcomed the January 2026 Syria–SDF deal.
How solid?
Official visits and agreements between Erdoğan and al-Sharaa, Turkey's troop presence in northern Syria and UNHCR refugee data. Most analysts call Turkey the top backer; Gulf states also fund Damascus.
What to watch
Disputed: how much Turkey steered HTS's December 2024 offensive, and whether Turkish bases in Syria will clash with Israeli interests.
▸The Kurds and the PKK peace process saw Syrian Kurds cede most self-rule to SyriaFact
The relationship
During the civil war the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, US partners against the Islamic State, built a self-rule zone across about a quarter of Syria. After Assad fell, government forces advanced in January 2026; deals that month handed Arab-majority Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor to Damascus and began merging the SDF into the army.
Since when and why
Northeast Syria; a March 2025 framework deal, fighting in Aleppo and toward Raqqa in January 2026, a ceasefire on January 18 and a comprehensive deal on January 30, 2026.
How we know
Published agreement terms, statements by Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, and the US endorsement calling it a 'historic milestone'.
What to watch
Whether Kurdish-majority areas such as Kobani and Hasakah keep meaningful autonomy, and whether integration holds without US troops, is uncertain.
▸Iran lost its key ally in SyriaFact
The relationship
For four decades Assad's Syria was Iran's only state ally in the Arab world and its land bridge for arms to Hezbollah. Iran spent billions and sent Revolutionary Guards to save Assad after 2011. His collapse in December 2024 ended that corridor, and the new government is hostile to Tehran.
Since when and why
Damascus, December 8, 2024, when HTS-led rebels took the capital and Assad fled to Moscow; Iranian personnel withdrew within days.
How we know
Iranian officials' own acknowledgments of the loss, reports of halted arms flows to Hezbollah, and the new Syrian government's rejection of any Iranian presence.
What to watch
Estimates of Iran's spending in Syria range widely, roughly $30–50 billion; whether Iran can rebuild influence through smuggling networks is debated.
▸Israel seized a buffer zone in SyriaFact
The relationship
Hours after Assad fell, Israel sent troops into the UN-patrolled buffer zone set up by the 1974 disengagement deal, including Syria's side of Mount Hermon, and struck most of Syria's heavy weapons. Israel calls the move temporary self-defense; Syria and the UN call it a violation. US-mediated security talks continue.
Since when and why
The Golan Heights frontier, from December 8, 2024; Israeli strikes on Damascus in July 2025 during clashes involving the Druze of Sweida; talks in Paris and elsewhere in 2025–26.
How we know
Israeli government and military statements, UN peacekeeping (UNDOF) reports, and Syrian and US readouts of the security talks.
What to watch
Unclear whether Israel will withdraw under a security deal, as Syria demands, or keep the zone as a lasting buffer, as Israeli officials suggest.
▸Arab League readmitted SyriaFact
The relationship
The league suspended Syria in 2011 over Assad's crackdown on protesters. Once Assad had survived, Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE re-engaged, hoping to curb drug smuggling, refugee flows and Iran's influence, and readmitted Syria in May 2023. After Assad fell, the league backed the new government.
Since when and why
Cairo, May 7, 2023; Assad attended the Arab League summit in Jeddah on May 19, 2023.
How we know
Arab League resolutions and summit records.
What to watch
Debated: whether readmitting Assad without political concessions rewarded atrocities; it did not stop the captagon drug trade his regime profited from.
▸Jihadist insurgencies (Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates) persist as Islamic State remnants in SyriaFact
The relationship
Islamic State, stripped of its Syrian territory in 2019, survives in desert cells that ambush troops and bomb civilians, as in a June 2025 Damascus church bombing the government blamed on IS. Assad's fall and the 2026 handover of Kurdish-run prisons and camps opened gaps; the US moved over 5,700 detainees to Iraq to prevent breakouts.
Since when and why
Syria's central desert and the northeast; Baghouz, March 2019; the al-Hol camp, holding about 24,000 people, changed hands in January 2026.
How we know
US Central Command statements and airstrikes, UN monitoring reports, and Syrian government announcements of arrests.
What to watch
How many detainees escaped during the 2026 handover, and whether the new government can contain IS without US help, is debated.