Geopolitics › Sub-Saharan Africa › African Union (AU)
Jihadist insurgencies (Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates)
Al-Qaeda 1988; IS caliphate 2014–19; Sahel now the epicenter· Conflict or rivalry
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
Armed movements linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, now strongest in Africa's Sahel, the Lake Chad basin and Somalia.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
Al-Qaeda, founded in 1988, carried out the 9/11 attacks; the Islamic State held a 'caliphate' across Iraq and Syria from 2014 until its last town fell in 2019. Both then shifted weight to Africa. Al-Qaeda's JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province fight across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger; ISWAP and Boko Haram around Lake Chad; al-Shabaab in Somalia; others in Mozambique and Congo. The Sahel accounted for over half of global terrorism deaths in 2024, per the Global Terrorism Index.
Why it matters
They weaken states, fuel coups and mass displacement, and pull in foreign forces from France to Russia to the United States.
Key facts and numbers
The Global Terrorism Index from the Institute for Economics and Peace, ACLED event data, UN monitoring reports and the groups' own claims.
What to watch
Whether JNIM, which blockaded Mali's capital Bamako in 2025–26, aims to seize power outright or to bargain for it; analysts disagree.
Connections (3)
▸Sahel coups and the Alliance of Sahel States were justified by failures against Jihadist insurgencies (Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates)Widely agreed
The relationship
Each junta justified seizing power by their predecessors' failure to stop jihadist attacks that had killed thousands of soldiers and civilians; Burkina Faso's 2022 coups followed heavy army losses. Yet violence has grown since the coups, and the Sahel is now the world's deadliest terrorism hotspot.
Since when and why
Mali 2020–21, Burkina Faso 2022 and Niger 2023; the main foes are al-Qaeda's JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province.
How solid?
Coup leaders' own statements, and ACLED and Global Terrorism Index data showing rising deaths after the coups.
What to watch
Disputed: whether insecurity truly drove the coups or offered cover for officers' ambitions and anti-French sentiment.
▸Jihadist insurgencies (Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates) drew Dec 2025 US strikes inside NigeriaFact
The relationship
Nigeria has fought Boko Haram since 2009 and its offshoot ISWAP, plus Islamic State-linked groups spreading into the northwest from the Sahel. On December 25, 2025 the US, coordinating with Abuja, fired Tomahawk missiles at two Islamic State camps in Sokoto State after Trump said Christians were being targeted.
Since when and why
Sokoto State, December 25, 2025, from the destroyer USS Paul Ignatius, weeks after the US named Nigeria a 'country of particular concern' for religious freedom.
How we know
US and Nigerian government statements; Nigeria's foreign minister confirmed the strikes were coordinated in advance.
What to watch
Disputed: US officials framed it as protecting Christians; Nigeria says the violence kills Muslims and Christians alike. Whether more US strikes follow is unclear.
▸Jihadist insurgencies (Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates) persist as Islamic State remnants in SyriaFact
The relationship
Islamic State, stripped of its Syrian territory in 2019, survives in desert cells that ambush troops and bomb civilians, as in a June 2025 Damascus church bombing the government blamed on IS. Assad's fall and the 2026 handover of Kurdish-run prisons and camps opened gaps; the US moved over 5,700 detainees to Iraq to prevent breakouts.
Since when and why
Syria's central desert and the northeast; Baghouz, March 2019; the al-Hol camp, holding about 24,000 people, changed hands in January 2026.
How we know
US Central Command statements and airstrikes, UN monitoring reports, and Syrian government announcements of arrests.
What to watch
How many detainees escaped during the 2026 handover, and whether the new government can contain IS without US help, is debated.