Geopolitics › Sub-Saharan Africa › African Union (AU)
Nigeria
Independent 1960· Country
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
Africa's most populous country and one of its largest economies, an oil producer with a young, fast-growing population.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
About 230 million people; GDP about $250–300 billion after a 2025 rebasing, swinging with the naira. A federal presidential republic of 36 states under President Bola Tinubu. Strengths: oil and gas, Lagos's tech, finance and entertainment scene, a huge domestic market. Weaknesses: jihadist and bandit violence, oil theft, deep poverty, high inflation. Member of OPEC, ECOWAS and the AU; BRICS partner. Investing: hard to access; frontier-market funds, dollar bonds, and Lagos-listed banks, telecoms and Dangote Cement.
Why it matters
Its size makes it West Africa's anchor; it is projected to rank among the world's five most populous countries by 2050.
Key facts and numbers
National Bureau of Statistics and IMF data, UN population projections, OPEC production figures and ACLED security data. Figures as of 2026.
What to watch
Outlook: whether Tinubu's painful reforms deliver broad gains before the 2027 election, and whether insecurity in the north can be contained.
Inside this (1)
Connections (3)
▸Bola Tinubu leads NigeriaFact
The relationship
As executive president, Tinubu heads the state, the government and the armed forces. His All Progressives Congress controls the National Assembly, letting him push reforms such as ending fuel subsidies, unifying exchange rates and a 2025 tax overhaul, while relying on state governors to deliver.
Since when and why
Abuja; sworn in May 29, 2023 after winning the February 2023 election. The next presidential vote is due in early 2027.
How we know
INEC results, the Supreme Court's October 2023 ruling upholding his win, and laws passed by the National Assembly.
What to watch
Whether the opposition coalition formed around the ADC party in 2025 can unseat him in 2027.
▸Nigeria is Africa's population giant in Demographics: aging and population shiftsFact
The relationship
Nigeria has about 230 million people, a median age near 18 and roughly 4.5–5 children per woman. UN projections put it at roughly 360–375 million by 2050, among the world's most populous countries. That could supply a huge workforce, or, without enough jobs, deepen poverty, insecurity and emigration.
Since when and why
West Africa; Nigeria's last census was in 2006, and a new one keeps being postponed; the UN's World Population Prospects 2024 supplies current estimates.
How we know
UN population estimates and Nigeria's Demographic and Health Surveys; with no census since 2006, totals are estimates and contested.
What to watch
Whether fertility falls fast enough for a 'demographic dividend', the growth boost when workers outnumber dependents, as in East Asia; the decline so far is slow.
▸Jihadist insurgencies (Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates) drew Dec 2025 US strikes inside NigeriaFact
The relationship
Nigeria has fought Boko Haram since 2009 and its offshoot ISWAP, plus Islamic State-linked groups spreading into the northwest from the Sahel. On December 25, 2025 the US, coordinating with Abuja, fired Tomahawk missiles at two Islamic State camps in Sokoto State after Trump said Christians were being targeted.
Since when and why
Sokoto State, December 25, 2025, from the destroyer USS Paul Ignatius, weeks after the US named Nigeria a 'country of particular concern' for religious freedom.
How we know
US and Nigerian government statements; Nigeria's foreign minister confirmed the strikes were coordinated in advance.
What to watch
Disputed: US officials framed it as protecting Christians; Nigeria says the violence kills Muslims and Christians alike. Whether more US strikes follow is unclear.