Geopolitics › Russia & Eurasia › Russia
Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict and 2025 peace deal
Wars 1988–94, 2020, 2023; deal Aug 8, 2025· Conflict or rivalry
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
Armenia and Azerbaijan fought for decades over Nagorno-Karabakh; Azerbaijan retook it in 2023, and a US-brokered peace deal followed in 2025.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-majority enclave inside Azerbaijan, broke away in a 1988–94 war that killed about 30,000 people (estimates vary). Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey and oil wealth, retook the surrounding districts and part of the enclave in 2020 and the rest in a September 2023 offensive, after which over 100,000 Armenians fled. On August 8, 2025, at the White House, the leaders signed a declaration, their ministers initialed a peace treaty, and they agreed a US-backed transit route through Armenia, the 'Trump Route' (TRIPP).
Why it matters
The deal opens an east–west trade corridor that bypasses Russia and Iran, and showcases US mediation in what was long Moscow's backyard.
Key facts and numbers
The treaty text published by both governments, White House statements, UNHCR refugee data and ceasefire records from 1994, 2020 and 2023.
What to watch
Disputed: Armenians call 2023 ethnic cleansing; Azerbaijan says residents left freely. Formal signing awaits an Armenian constitutional referendum that Baku demands.
Connections (2)
▸Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict and 2025 peace deal weakened the influence of RussiaWidely agreed
The relationship
Russia was Armenia's treaty ally and the region's power broker, with peacekeepers in Karabakh after 2020. When they stood aside during Azerbaijan's 2023 offensive, Armenia froze its role in the Russian-led CSTO alliance and turned West. The 2025 deal, brokered by Washington, left Moscow sidelined.
Since when and why
Nagorno-Karabakh, September 2023; Russian peacekeepers left in 2024; White House summit on August 8, 2025; Pashinyan's party won the June 2026 election on a westward course.
How solid?
Armenian government decisions on the CSTO, the US-hosted summit, and Pashinyan's re-election with about 50% of the vote are documented.
What to watch
Russia still has a base at Gyumri in Armenia and major trade leverage; whether its influence is lost or merely paused is debated.
▸Turkey (Türkiye) backs Azerbaijan in Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict and 2025 peace dealFact
The relationship
Turkey, which calls Azerbaijan 'one nation, two states', supplied Bayraktar drones and advisers that helped Azerbaijan win the 2020 war and retake Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. It now backs the 2025 deal's planned transit route across Armenia, which would link Turkey to Azerbaijan and Central Asia.
Since when and why
The 2020 war (September–November); the 2021 Shusha Declaration alliance; the September 2023 offensive; the August 8, 2025 White House deal agreeing the planned 'Trump Route' corridor.
How we know
The Shusha Declaration text, Azerbaijani combat footage of Turkish drones, and official statements from Ankara, Baku and Yerevan.
What to watch
Disputed: reports that Turkey moved Syrian mercenaries to fight in 2020, which Ankara denies; and whether Turkey–Armenia border normalization will follow the peace deal.