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Russian sabotage, drones and hybrid attacks on Europe
Escalating since 2022· Conflict or rivalry
Widely agreedMost analysts agree.
A campaign of sabotage, arson, cyberattacks, drone incursions and election meddling across Europe that Western governments attribute to Russia.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
Incidents since 2022 include arson at a Warsaw shopping center (2024), incendiary parcels in DHL depots, Baltic undersea cables cut by ships' anchors, GPS jamming over the Baltic, and an explosion on a Polish rail line (2025). In September 2025 about 20 Russian drones crossed into Poland; unidentified drones later shut Copenhagen and Munich airports. In August 2026 an explosive drone hit a cargo plane at Leipzig but failed to detonate. Moscow denies involvement; many attacks use local recruits hired online.
Why it matters
Most analysts see it as an effort to raise the cost of backing Ukraine and probe NATO's resolve while staying below the line that would trigger Article 5 collective defense.
Key facts and numbers
Police investigations and convictions in Poland, Germany, the UK and the Baltics; government attributions; NATO statements; and tracking by think tanks such as IISS and security firms such as Recorded Future. Some incidents remain unattributed.
What to watch
Disputed: attribution of individual incidents, and where harassment ends and armed attack begins; Danish intelligence warned in September 2026 of sabotage risking casualties.
Connections (3)
▸Russian sabotage, drones and hybrid attacks on Europe targets European UnionWidely agreed
The relationship
EU states supplying Ukraine are the main targets: sabotage of rail lines, depots and cables, arson, cyberattacks and disinformation meant to raise the cost of support and divide voters. The EU has responded with sanctions on hybrid actors, drone-defense plans and tighter protection of undersea infrastructure.
Since when and why
Germany, Poland, the Baltic states, France, the Nordics and Romania, whose November 2024 presidential vote was annulled over alleged Russian interference; escalating through 2026.
How solid?
National intelligence and police findings, convictions of recruited saboteurs, EU sanctions listings for hybrid threats and NATO statements. Russia denies all of it.
What to watch
Debated: how centrally directed the campaign is versus opportunistic recruits, and what response would deter it without escalating.
▸Russian sabotage, drones and hybrid attacks on Europe sent drones into the airspace of PolandFact
The relationship
On September 9–10, 2025, about 19–21 Russian drones, mostly cheap decoys, crossed into Poland during an attack on Ukraine. Polish and allied jets shot several down, the first time NATO aircraft fired on Russian targets over allied territory, and Poland invoked NATO's Article 4 consultations.
Since when and why
Eastern Poland, September 9–10, 2025; Poland also blames Russia for a 2024 Warsaw shopping-center fire and a November 2025 rail-line explosion.
How we know
Polish military and government statements, wreckage recovered across several provinces, NATO's launch of its 'Eastern Sentry' air-defense mission, and Polish prosecutors' charges.
What to watch
Russia and Belarus implied the incursion was accidental; most Western officials judged it a deliberate test, and Moscow's exact intent remains disputed.
▸Russian sabotage, drones and hybrid attacks on Europe increasingly relies on Drone warfare revolutionWidely agreed
The relationship
Drones honed in Ukraine have become a tool of harassment in Europe: cheap decoys crossing into Poland and Romania, unexplained drones over airports and bases, and in August 2026 an explosive quadcopter at Leipzig airport. They are cheap, deniable and hard to stop with existing air defenses.
Since when and why
Poland, Romania, Moldova, Denmark, Germany and Belgium, mostly from 2025; Leipzig, August 4, 2026, which Germany blamed on Russia that September.
How solid?
Polish and German government statements, recovered wreckage, NATO's 'Eastern Sentry' mission and investigative reporting; many sightings remain unattributed.
What to watch
Who flew many of the airport drones is still unknown; Europe debates costly 'drone wall' defenses versus cheap interceptors copied from Ukraine.