Geopolitics › Russia & Eurasia
Russia–Ukraine war
Full-scale since Feb 24, 2022 (fighting since 2014)· Conflict or rivalry
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, after its 2014 seizure of Crimea, is Europe's largest war since 1945.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
Russia's push on Kyiv failed in 2022, and Ukraine retook large areas that year, but its 2023 counteroffensive stalled. Since then Russia has advanced slowly in the east at heavy cost, and drones now cause most battlefield casualties. Estimates vary widely: CSIS put Russian military killed, wounded or missing at about 1.2 million and Ukrainian at 500,000–600,000 by late 2025; the UN has verified over 14,000 civilian deaths. US-brokered talks stalled in 2026, and Russian advances slowed sharply by mid-2026.
Why it matters
The war revived NATO, triggered Europe's rearmament, rewired global energy trade, and is the main test of whether force can redraw borders in Europe.
Key facts and numbers
UN casualty monitoring, satellite and video analysis, Western intelligence estimates, and counts of named Russian dead by Mediazona and the BBC.
What to watch
Outlook: when and how it ends; most analysts doubt a ceasefire before 2027. True losses and Russia's capacity to keep fighting are debated.
Inside this (4)
Connections (7)
▸European rearmament (ReArm Europe) was spurred by Russia–Ukraine warWidely agreed
The relationship
Russia's 2022 invasion ended Europe's post-Cold War complacency: Germany declared a 'Zeitenwende' (turning point) and set up a €100 billion military fund. Doubts about US commitment under Trump in 2025 turned that into a continent-wide buildup, as the war showed how fast armies burn through shells, drones and air defenses.
Since when and why
Olaf Scholz's Zeitenwende speech, February 27, 2022; the ReArm Europe proposal, March 4, 2025, days after the Trump–Zelensky Oval Office clash.
How solid?
Leaders explicitly cite the Russian threat in their plans, and NATO data show European defense spending rising every year since 2022.
What to watch
Analysts debate whether US pressure or the Russian threat mattered more, and whether spending will hold if the war ends.
▸Vladimir Putin launched Russia–Ukraine warFact
The relationship
Putin personally ordered the 'special military operation' in a televised speech on February 24, 2022, after a 2021 essay calling Russians and Ukrainians 'one people'. He framed it as defense against NATO expansion and 'denazification'; Ukraine and the West see an imperial war of conquest.
Since when and why
Moscow, a televised address before dawn on February 24, 2022, three days after he recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk 'republics'.
How we know
His speeches, essay and decrees are public; the Kremlin itself presents the decision as his.
What to watch
Disputed: how much NATO enlargement versus imperial ambition drove him, and whether he expected victory within days, as most evidence suggests.
▸Russia–Ukraine war drove up prices in Energy: oil, gas and LNGFact
The relationship
The invasion and Europe's loss of Russian gas sent European gas prices to records in August 2022, more than ten times normal, and Brent crude briefly near $140. Russia redirected oil to India, China and Turkey at discounts. Ukrainian drones have since struck Russian refineries and ports, while Russia hits Ukraine's power and gas plants.
Since when and why
Europe and world markets from February 2022; the Dutch TTF gas benchmark peaked in August 2022; Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries intensified in 2024–25.
How we know
Brent and TTF price records, IEA market reports, and tanker-tracking data showing Russian oil rerouted to Asia.
What to watch
How much of the price spike reflected the war versus post-COVID demand, and whether a peace deal would bring Russian gas back to Europe, are debated.
▸Russia–Ukraine war disrupted Food security and the grain tradeFact
The relationship
Before 2022, Russia and Ukraine supplied nearly 30% of world wheat exports, and Ukraine nearly half of sunflower-oil exports. The invasion blocked Ukraine's ports, and the FAO food price index hit a record in March 2022. A UN- and Turkey-brokered Black Sea deal (2022–23), then a Ukrainian-run sea corridor, restored most shipments.
Since when and why
The Black Sea ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi; the Black Sea Grain Initiative was signed in Istanbul in July 2022 and ended by Russia in July 2023.
How we know
FAO price indexes, records of the UN-run Joint Coordination Centre (about 33 million tonnes shipped under the deal) and USDA trade data.
What to watch
How much of the 2022 price spike reflected the war versus drought, fertilizer and energy costs, and whether strikes on ports keep threatening exports.
▸Russia–Ukraine war reinvigorated NATOWidely agreed
The relationship
Russia's 2022 invasion gave NATO renewed purpose. Long-neutral Finland and Sweden joined; allies stationed battle groups in eight eastern members and raised spending, with all 32 expected to reach 2% of GDP in 2025 before pledging 5%. NATO coordinates arms and training for Ukraine but avoids direct combat.
Since when and why
Summits in Madrid 2022 (Russia named 'the most significant and direct threat'), Vilnius 2023, Washington 2024, The Hague 2025 and Ankara 2026.
How solid?
Accession protocols, NATO force deployments, the 2022 Strategic Concept and NATO spending reports showing sharp increases since 2022.
What to watch
Disputed: Moscow says NATO's eastward growth provoked the war; NATO and Kyiv say Russia chose to invade. Ukraine's own path to membership remains blocked.
▸UN Security Council and the P5 veto is deadlocked by vetoes over Russia–Ukraine warFact
The relationship
As a permanent member, Russia can veto any Security Council action against it, and did so in February and September 2022. The UN's response shifted to the General Assembly, which has no veto but passes only non-binding resolutions. In 2025 a US-drafted text calling for peace without blaming Russia did pass.
Since when and why
New York: Russian vetoes on February 25, 2022 (on the invasion) and September 30, 2022 (on the annexations); Resolution 2774 adopted on February 24, 2025.
How we know
UN voting records are public; the General Assembly condemned the invasion 141–5 in March 2022.
What to watch
Whether the P5 veto system can ever be reformed, and whether the Council could authorize a peacekeeping force for Ukraine, which Russia would likely block.
▸Bosporus and the Turkish Straits were closed to warships during Russia–Ukraine warFact
The relationship
Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey can bar warships of countries at war. It invoked that rule days after the invasion, so Russia could not reinforce its Black Sea Fleet from other fleets, while Ukrainian missiles and sea drones sank or damaged many ships, forcing the fleet from Crimea to Novorossiysk. Commercial shipping continued.
Since when and why
Ankara, February 28, 2022; Turkey also brokered the 2022–23 Black Sea Grain Initiative with the UN.
How we know
Turkish government statements and the Montreux treaty text; naval tracking shows the ban has held.
What to watch
Whether Turkey keeps the ban after a ceasefire, and how mines and Ukrainian strikes on Russian tankers will affect Black Sea shipping.