Geopolitics › Global issues & flashpoints › Demographics: aging and population shifts
Food security and the grain trade
· Issue or flashpoint
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
Whether the world can grow, ship and afford enough food, a question shaped by war, weather, trade policy and chokepoints.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
UN agencies estimate about 670 million people faced chronic hunger in 2024, around 8% of humanity; famine was confirmed in parts of Sudan in 2024 and Gaza in 2025 (Israel disputes the Gaza finding). A few exporters dominate: Brazil and the US in soybeans and corn; Russia, the EU, Canada, Australia and Ukraine in wheat. Importers such as Egypt depend on them. Shocks spread fast: the FAO food price index hit a record in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Why it matters
Food price spikes can help topple governments; bread costs helped fuel the 2011 Arab uprisings. Exporters gain leverage; importers in the Middle East and Africa are most exposed.
Key facts and numbers
The UN's annual hunger report (SOFI), the FAO food price index, IPC famine classifications, and USDA and FAO trade data. Hunger counts are modeled estimates with wide ranges.
What to watch
Outlook: how climate change, fertilizer costs and shipping disruptions at Hormuz and the Red Sea affect harvests and prices into the 2030s.
Connections (3)
▸Brazil is a breadbasket in Food security and the grain tradeFact
The relationship
Brazil is the world's top exporter of soybeans, coffee, beef, sugar, chicken and orange juice, and a leading corn exporter. New farmland in the Cerrado savanna and two harvests a year made it the swing supplier: when the trade war hit US soybeans, China switched to Brazil, now roughly 70% of its soybean imports.
Since when and why
Farm belts in Mato Grosso, Goiás and Paraná, shipping through Santos and newer northern ports; the boom has built since the 2000s.
How we know
USDA and Brazilian agriculture ministry export data, Chinese customs import figures and FAO trade statistics.
What to watch
Debated: how far farm expansion drives Amazon and Cerrado deforestation, and whether drought and climate change threaten Brazil's two-harvest system.
▸Russia–Ukraine war disrupted Food security and the grain tradeFact
The relationship
Before 2022, Russia and Ukraine supplied nearly 30% of world wheat exports, and Ukraine nearly half of sunflower-oil exports. The invasion blocked Ukraine's ports, and the FAO food price index hit a record in March 2022. A UN- and Turkey-brokered Black Sea deal (2022–23), then a Ukrainian-run sea corridor, restored most shipments.
Since when and why
The Black Sea ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi; the Black Sea Grain Initiative was signed in Istanbul in July 2022 and ended by Russia in July 2023.
How we know
FAO price indexes, records of the UN-run Joint Coordination Centre (about 33 million tonnes shipped under the deal) and USDA trade data.
What to watch
How much of the 2022 price spike reflected the war versus drought, fertilizer and energy costs, and whether strikes on ports keep threatening exports.
▸Egypt is a top wheat importer in Food security and the grain tradeFact
The relationship
Egypt imports about 12–13 million tonnes of wheat a year, much of it historically from Russia and Ukraine, to make subsidized bread for over 60 million people. The 2022 grain shock and currency crashes forced IMF help and, in 2024, the first subsidized-bread price rise in decades.
Since when and why
Egypt; the 1977 'bread riots' over subsidy cuts, the 2022 Black Sea grain disruption and the June 2024 quadrupling of the subsidized-bread price.
How we know
USDA and FAO import data, Egyptian supply ministry statements and IMF program documents.
What to watch
Whether Egypt can trim costly subsidies without unrest, and how climate change and the Nile dispute affect its own harvests, are open questions.