Geopolitics › Global issues & flashpoints
Energy: oil, gas and LNG
· Resource or chokepoint
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
Oil and natural gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped by tanker, still supply over half the world's energy and drive much of its geopolitics.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
The world uses about 104 million barrels of oil a day. The US is the largest producer of both oil and gas, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil; OPEC+ coordinates output among most other big exporters. LNG, gas chilled to a liquid, lets gas cross oceans: the US, Qatar and Australia lead exports. Prices are set globally, so a war in one region hits everyone: Brent crude jumped from about $72 to nearly $120 when Iran choked Hormuz in 2026.
Why it matters
Energy drives inflation, interest rates and war budgets; exporters gain leverage, while import-dependent Europe, Japan, Korea, China and India stay exposed to shocks.
Key facts and numbers
International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration data, the Energy Institute's Statistical Review of World Energy, and Brent and LNG price records. As of 2026.
What to watch
Outlook: when oil demand peaks. IEA scenarios mostly show a plateau around 2030; OPEC sees growth past 2050. Forecasts differ widely.
Inside this (5)
Connections (5)
▸United States is the top producer in Energy: oil, gas and LNGFact
The relationship
The shale revolution, horizontal drilling plus fracking from about 2008, made the US the world's largest oil producer, at about 13.5 million barrels of crude a day, and its largest LNG exporter. That cushions it against supply cuts and lets it sell gas to allies, though US fuel prices still follow world markets.
Since when and why
The Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, North Dakota, and Gulf Coast LNG terminals; the US became top oil producer in 2018 and top LNG exporter in 2023.
How we know
Monthly US Energy Information Administration production and export data, and International Energy Agency rankings.
What to watch
Outlook: whether shale output has peaked; drillers cut rigs as prices fell in 2025, and analysts debate how much the 2026 price spike revived growth.
▸European Union replaced much Russian gas with LNG in Energy: oil, gas and LNGFact
The relationship
In 2021 Russia supplied about 45% of EU gas imports. After the invasion and the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, the EU cut that to roughly 13% by 2025, replacing it with Norwegian pipeline gas and LNG, mainly from the US and Qatar. It has agreed to end Russian gas imports entirely by late 2027.
Since when and why
The REPowerEU plan of May 2022; new LNG terminals in Germany and elsewhere; an EU law agreed in December 2025 bans Russian LNG from 2027 and pipeline gas by late 2027.
How we know
European Commission and Eurostat import data, the phase-out regulation, and LNG terminal records; trackers such as Bruegel's show the shift month by month.
What to watch
Whether swapping Russian dependence for US LNG creates a new vulnerability, given Trump's trade pressure, and whether landlocked Hungary and Slovakia fully comply.
▸Russia–Ukraine war drove up prices in Energy: oil, gas and LNGFact
The relationship
The invasion and Europe's loss of Russian gas sent European gas prices to records in August 2022, more than ten times normal, and Brent crude briefly near $140. Russia redirected oil to India, China and Turkey at discounts. Ukrainian drones have since struck Russian refineries and ports, while Russia hits Ukraine's power and gas plants.
Since when and why
Europe and world markets from February 2022; the Dutch TTF gas benchmark peaked in August 2022; Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries intensified in 2024–25.
How we know
Brent and TTF price records, IEA market reports, and tanker-tracking data showing Russian oil rerouted to Asia.
What to watch
How much of the price spike reflected the war versus post-COVID demand, and whether a peace deal would bring Russian gas back to Europe, are debated.
▸Clean-energy race (solar, EVs, batteries) may erode long-run demand in Energy: oil, gas and LNGOutlook
The relationship
EVs, solar and wind displace oil in transport and gas in power. Analysts say China's gasoline demand peaked around 2023 as EVs spread there. If adoption keeps widening, global oil demand could plateau around 2030 and then fall, eroding petrostates' leverage; slower adoption keeps demand rising for longer.
Since when and why
Most visible in China's car market and Europe's power sector; IEA forecasts since 2023 have put a global oil-demand peak near 2030.
How solid?
Outlook, not fact: IEA, OPEC and BloombergNEF scenarios disagree sharply, and past peak-oil forecasts have often been wrong.
What to watch
Whether the 2026 oil shock speeds the switch, as the 1970s shocks spurred efficiency, or US policy and cheaper oil later slow it.
▸Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in Energy: oil, gas and LNGFact
The relationship
Venezuela's roughly 300 billion barrels, about 17% of the world's proven oil, are mostly extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt. But output fell from over 3 million barrels a day in the late 1990s to about 1 million, after mismanagement, the 2003 purge of oil-company staff and sanctions.
Since when and why
The Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo; reserves were recertified upward around 2010–11, overtaking Saudi Arabia's.
How we know
OPEC's Annual Statistical Bulletin and Energy Institute data on reserves; production from OPEC secondary sources and the US Energy Information Administration.
What to watch
How fast output can recover under US-overseen deals; analysts estimate tens of billions of dollars and years of work, and some oil majors call it uninvestable.