Geopolitics › Latin America
Venezuela
Maduro seized by US, Jan 2026; largest proven oil reserves· Country
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
An oil giant wrecked by economic collapse and authoritarian rule, now run by Maduro's former vice president under heavy US pressure after his capture.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
About 28 million people remain after nearly 8 million emigrated. GDP is roughly $100 billion, estimates vary widely; the economy shrank about three-quarters from 2013 to 2020. Chávez and Maduro ruled from 1999; Maduro's 2024 re-election was widely judged fraudulent. Strengths: the largest proven oil reserves, plus gas and gold. Weaknesses: crumbling oil infrastructure, defaulted debt, sanctions and corruption. Since January 2026 acting president Delcy Rodríguez has cooperated with Washington on oil. Investing: no country ETF; specialists trade defaulted government and PDVSA bonds.
Why it matters
It is the centerpiece of Washington's 'Western Hemisphere first' policy, a test of whether a raid-driven transition can bring stability, and a potential swing source of oil.
Key facts and numbers
Reserves from OPEC's Annual Statistical Bulletin (about 300 billion barrels); migration from the UN-backed R4V platform; opposition-collected tally sheets and independent observers on the 2024 vote.
What to watch
Outlook: whether free elections follow, whether the opposition led by María Corina Machado (2025 Nobel Peace laureate) gains power, and how fast oil output recovers.
Inside this (4)
Connections (4)
▸Cuba lost oil shipments from VenezuelaFact
The relationship
Under a 2000 deal between Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro, Venezuela sent Cuba cheap oil, at times about 100,000 barrels a day, in exchange for doctors and security advisers. After Maduro's capture the shipments stopped as US-overseen exports took over, deepening Cuba's blackouts.
Since when and why
Havana–Caracas oil-for-services pact from October 2000; shipments had dwindled to roughly 30,000 barrels a day by 2025 and ended in January 2026.
How we know
Tanker-tracking data, PDVSA records and news reporting; Cuba said 32 of its security personnel guarding Maduro died in the raid, showing the alliance's depth.
What to watch
How much Cuba relied on Venezuelan cash versus oil is unclear, and whether a post-Maduro Venezuela ever resumes supply is unknown.
▸Colombia borders VenezuelaFact
The relationship
The two share a porous border of about 2,200 km, crossed by migrants, smuggled fuel and cocaine. Colombian guerrillas such as the ELN operate from Venezuelan territory. Colombia hosts about 2.8 million Venezuelan migrants, so every shift in Caracas, including Maduro's fall, ripples across the border.
Since when and why
From the Guajira peninsula to the Amazon; relations broke in 2019 under President Iván Duque and were restored by Petro in 2022.
How we know
Migración Colombia and UN migration data, UNODC drug-route reports and Colombian military reports on ELN camps in Venezuela.
What to watch
Whether Venezuela's new leadership acts against armed groups on its side, and whether migrants start returning in large numbers, is unknown.
▸Delcy Rodríguez leads VenezuelaFact
The relationship
As acting president, Rodríguez runs the same chavista state Maduro led, with her brother Jorge heading the National Assembly. She has traded concessions to Washington, such as prisoner releases and oil access, for survival, while the opposition says the regime remains in place and demands a new election.
Since when and why
Caracas, since January 5, 2026; her key allies are her brother Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, and the armed forces' leadership.
How we know
Official decrees, the January 2026 amnesty bill and US government statements document her authority and her dealings with Washington.
What to watch
Disputed: the government calls her the lawful successor; the opposition led by María Corina Machado calls her rule illegitimate. When a free election will be held is unresolved.
▸Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in Energy: oil, gas and LNGFact
The relationship
Venezuela's roughly 300 billion barrels, about 17% of the world's proven oil, are mostly extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt. But output fell from over 3 million barrels a day in the late 1990s to about 1 million, after mismanagement, the 2003 purge of oil-company staff and sanctions.
Since when and why
The Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo; reserves were recertified upward around 2010–11, overtaking Saudi Arabia's.
How we know
OPEC's Annual Statistical Bulletin and Energy Institute data on reserves; production from OPEC secondary sources and the US Energy Information Administration.
What to watch
How fast output can recover under US-overseen deals; analysts estimate tens of billions of dollars and years of work, and some oil majors call it uninvestable.