Geopolitics › Latin America › Venezuela
Cuba
Communist rule since 1959; fuel crisis 2026· Country
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
A one-party communist state 90 miles from Florida, in deep economic crisis and facing a fuel cutoff in 2026.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
About 9.7 million people officially, likely far fewer after about a tenth emigrated since 2021. Reliable GDP figures are lacking; officials say output fell over 10% since 2019. The Communist Party rules; Miguel Díaz-Canel is president. Strengths: educated workers, doctors sent abroad for cash, tourism, nickel. Weaknesses: grid collapses, food and fuel shortages, a failing peso and the US embargo since 1962. Investing: practically closed; no stock market, and US law bars most US investment. Foreign firms such as Spain's Meliá hotels run joint ventures.
Why it matters
Long backed by the Soviet Union, then Venezuela, it lost its oil lifeline in 2026; its crisis tests US pressure and could trigger a new migration wave.
Key facts and numbers
Official ONEI statistics (incomplete), independent demographers' emigration estimates, US border encounter data, and the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which wrote the embargo into law.
What to watch
Outlook: whether pressure forces economic opening, talks with Washington, unrest or collapse, and whether Russia, China or Mexico step in with fuel.
Connections (2)
▸Cuba lost oil shipments from VenezuelaFact
The relationship
Under a 2000 deal between Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro, Venezuela sent Cuba cheap oil, at times about 100,000 barrels a day, in exchange for doctors and security advisers. After Maduro's capture the shipments stopped as US-overseen exports took over, deepening Cuba's blackouts.
Since when and why
Havana–Caracas oil-for-services pact from October 2000; shipments had dwindled to roughly 30,000 barrels a day by 2025 and ended in January 2026.
How we know
Tanker-tracking data, PDVSA records and news reporting; Cuba said 32 of its security personnel guarding Maduro died in the raid, showing the alliance's depth.
What to watch
How much Cuba relied on Venezuelan cash versus oil is unclear, and whether a post-Maduro Venezuela ever resumes supply is unknown.
▸Cuba faces an oil cutoff enforced by United StatesFact
The relationship
On top of the 1962 embargo, Washington moved in January 2026 to choke Cuba's remaining fuel imports, threatening tariffs and sanctions on any country that supplies it oil. Mexico, its main remaining supplier, scaled back shipments, leaving Cuba short of fuel for power plants, transport and flights.
Since when and why
Washington, late January 2026, by presidential order after the Maduro raid; Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American, has long championed pressure on Havana.
How we know
The White House order, Mexican government statements on its shipments, and tanker-tracking data showing deliveries collapsing.
What to watch
Whether the squeeze forces reforms or talks, causes a humanitarian collapse and new migration surge, or entrenches the regime is debated.