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CMBS delinquency waves (2009–12, 2020 and 2023–26)
2009–12, 2020, 2023–26· Crisis or event
Fact, law or dataA rule, statute, definition or measured number.
Three spikes in late payments on loans inside commercial mortgage bonds: after 2008, in the 2020 lockdowns, and the office-led wave since 2023.
See it on the Money & Finance map →How it works
Trepp's rate counts CMBS loans 30 or more days late, in foreclosure, or unpaid past maturity. Wave one: falling values after 2008 pushed it to a record 10.34% in mid-2012. Wave two: lockdowns lifted it to 10.32% in June 2020, led by hotels (24%) and retail (18%), then it fell as travel returned. Wave three: office loans, hit by remote work and higher rates, passed their 2012 high in 2025 and topped 12% in 2026; the overall rate was about 7.9% in August 2026.
Why it matters
It is the clearest public scoreboard of property-loan distress. Each wave hit different property types, showing that the cause, not just the cycle, decides which owners suffer.
Think of it like
Like a market vacancy rate, but for loans: the share of borrowers who have stopped paying.
Facts, rules and data
Trepp's monthly CMBS delinquency reports, built from the loan-level data servicers file for each bond deal; KBRA and CRED iQ publish similar series with slightly different definitions.
Debates and risks
Whether the office wave has peaked, and how much extensions and modifications keep the reported rate below the true level of distress.
Inside this (1)
Connections (4)
▸CMBS delinquency waves (2009–12, 2020 and 2023–26) measure the lending side of Commercial real estate stress (2023–)Fact, law or data
The connection
CRE stress shows up first in vacancies and values; CMBS delinquency shows when it reaches lenders. Because CMBS loan data are public monthly, the rate became the headline gauge: office CMBS delinquency rose from under 2% in 2022 to over 12% in 2026, tracking office vacancy and falling values.
When and why
In US CMBS since 2023, worst in loans on older downtown and suburban office buildings.
How we know
Trepp's monthly delinquency reports, alongside Moody's and CBRE vacancy surveys and MSCI and Green Street price indexes.
Debates and risks
CMBS is a minority of CRE debt; whether bank loans are as stressed but modified rather than reported delinquent is debated.
▸CMBS delinquency waves (2009–12, 2020 and 2023–26) peaked at about 10% in 2012 after The 2008 global financial crisisFact, law or data
The connection
Loans written at peak 2005–07 values, with thin cushions and optimistic income projections, met the recession's falling rents and values. The delinquency rate rose from under 1% in 2007 to a record 10.34% in mid-2012, years after the crisis itself, partly because many loans failed only when they matured.
When and why
In US CMBS issued mainly in 2005–07, including a record of about $230 billion in 2007 alone.
How we know
Trepp's delinquency series and industry issuance data compiled by Commercial Mortgage Alert.
Debates and risks
How much of the 2010–12 rise came from loose underwriting rather than the recession, and why the peak lagged by three years.
▸CMBS delinquency waves (2009–12, 2020 and 2023–26) are now driven mostly by The CRE maturity wall and maturity defaultsFact, law or data
The connection
In earlier waves, loans stopped paying each month. Now many keep paying but cannot be repaid at maturity because new loans would be smaller. Trepp found matured balloons made up about 81% of newly delinquent CMBS balances in August 2026, when the overall rate was about 7.9%.
When and why
In US CMBS from 2023 through 2026, concentrated in office loans made in the 2010s.
How we know
Trepp's monthly delinquency reports, which break out 'non-performing matured balloon' loans.
Debates and risks
Whether matured-loan defaults peak soon or keep rolling as extended loans come due again.
▸The US office market: remote work and record vacancy drives most of the latest CMBS delinquency waves (2009–12, 2020 and 2023–26)Fact, law or data
The connection
Office loans in CMBS usually have balloon payments at maturity. When buildings lose tenants, owners cannot refinance and default at maturity. Office CMBS delinquency passed its 2012 high in 2025 and topped 12% in 2026, making office the main driver of the current wave.
When and why
US CMBS loans, 2023–26, tracked in Trepp's monthly reports.
How we know
Trepp delinquency rates by property type.
Debates and risks
How high office delinquency will climb before refinancing markets fully reopen.