Money & Finance › Markets of the world › Commercial real estate markets: office, industrial, retail, apartments
The US office market: remote work and record vacancy
Since 2020· Asset or instrument
Fact, law or dataA rule, statute, definition or measured number.
US office buildings, hit since 2020 by remote and hybrid work, with national vacancy stuck near a record of about 20%.
See it on the Money & Finance map →How it works
Leases run 5–10 years, so empty space rose slowly after 2020 as leases expired and tenants shrank. National vacancy climbed from roughly 13–17% in 2019, depending on the data firm, to about 20%, a record in Moody's data back to 1979. Cushman & Wakefield put it at 20.1% in mid-2026, flat for two years as leasing improved. New Class A towers lease best (the 'flight to quality'); older Class B and C buildings face deeper concessions, falling values and some conversions to housing.
Why it matters
Office values fell by a third or more from 2022, leaving many owners owing more than their buildings are worth; this is the core of today's CRE loan stress.
Facts, rules and data
Vacancy series from Moody's, CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield, Kastle badge-swipe occupancy data, Green Street and MSCI price indexes, and Trepp loan reports; definitions differ, so figures vary.
Debates and risks
Whether hybrid work has permanently cut space per worker, or return-to-office mandates and almost no new construction will refill buildings by the late 2020s.
Inside this (1)
Connections (3)
▸The US office market: remote work and record vacancy was upended by remote work after COVID-19 crash and rescue (2020)Fact, law or data
The connection
March 2020 lockdowns emptied offices; badge swipes in big cities fell to about 15% of normal. When offices reopened, many firms kept hybrid schedules and cut space as leases expired. Occupancy has stayed around half to 60% of pre-pandemic levels.
When and why
US cities from March 2020; firms such as Meta and Salesforce gave back space.
How we know
Kastle occupancy data, sublease-space counts from CBRE and JLL, and remote-work surveys by economists such as Nick Bloom.
Debates and risks
Whether return-to-office mandates from banks and Amazon will lift demand enough to matter.
▸The US office market: remote work and record vacancy is the epicenter of Commercial real estate stress (2023–)Fact, law or data
The connection
Office values fell by a third or more from 2022 as vacancy rose and higher rates raised cap rates. Loans written at 3–4% must refinance near 6–7% with smaller proceeds, so many owners must add equity, extend or hand back the keys, while lenders and CMBS investors absorb losses.
When and why
Big downtowns such as San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles, plus older suburban Class B buildings, from 2023.
How we know
Green Street and MSCI price indexes, Trepp loan data and bank filings.
Debates and risks
How much loss remains hidden in loans that lenders extended rather than resolved.
▸The US office market: remote work and record vacancy drives most of the latest CMBS delinquency waves (2009–12, 2020 and 2023–26)Fact, law or data
The connection
Office loans in CMBS usually have balloon payments at maturity. When buildings lose tenants, owners cannot refinance and default at maturity. Office CMBS delinquency passed its 2012 high in 2025 and topped 12% in 2026, making office the main driver of the current wave.
When and why
US CMBS loans, 2023–26, tracked in Trepp's monthly reports.
How we know
Trepp delinquency rates by property type.
Debates and risks
How high office delinquency will climb before refinancing markets fully reopen.