Geopolitics › Southeast Asia & Oceania › ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)
Myanmar civil war
Since Feb 1, 2021 coup· Conflict or rivalry
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
The war that followed the army's February 2021 coup, pitting the junta against pro-democracy militias and ethnic armies; Southeast Asia's deadliest conflict.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
General Min Aung Hlaing ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government and crushed protests. Resistance militias and ethnic armies fought back; a 2023 offensive seized much of the north, and the Arakan Army took most of Rakhine state. Since mid-2025 the army has regained ground, helped by conscription and China-brokered ceasefires. A military-run election in December 2025–January 2026, widely judged neither free nor fair, made the general president in April 2026. Estimates vary: tens of thousands killed on all sides and about 3.7 million displaced.
Why it matters
It breaks ASEAN's claim to manage its own region, spills refugees, drugs and scam centers into neighbors, and threatens supplies of heavy rare earths mined near China's border.
Key facts and numbers
UN displacement figures, conflict-monitor tallies, satellite imagery and local media reporting; access is limited, so death tolls are uncertain. As of 2026.
What to watch
Outlook: whether the nominally civilian government talks with resistance groups, and whether China's backing lets the army retake the territory it lost.
Connections (2)
▸Myanmar civil war defied the peace plan of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)Fact
The relationship
Two months after the coup, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing agreed to ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus: end violence, hold dialogue, allow aid, accept an envoy. The army ignored it, so ASEAN barred junta leaders from summits, and Myanmar's 2026 chair went to the Philippines. In January 2026 ASEAN said it had no consensus to recognize the army-run election.
Since when and why
Jakarta, April 24, 2021; leaders excluded from October 2021; ASEAN foreign ministers' retreat in Cebu, January 29, 2026.
How we know
ASEAN chair's statements and communiqués, and statements by Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro.
What to watch
Whether ASEAN will deal with Min Aung Hlaing now that he is president; members are split between engagement and isolation.
▸Myanmar civil war disrupts heavy rare-earth supply in Critical minerals and rare earthsWidely agreed
The relationship
Myanmar's Kachin State became a major source of heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium and terbium, mined cheaply and often illegally, then trucked to China for processing. In October 2024 the Kachin Independence Army, an ethnic rebel force, seized the main mining hub near the Chinese border, and China has used border closures to pressure it, disrupting supply.
Since when and why
Pangwa and Chipwe in Kachin State, near China's Yunnan province; mining boomed after China tightened rules at home in the late 2010s.
How solid?
Global Witness investigations, Chinese customs import data and USGS figures, which rank Myanmar among the top three rare-earth miners.
What to watch
Who controls each mine and how much ore still reaches China is unclear; reports of rebels courting Western buyers are unconfirmed.