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Canada
Confederation 1867· Country
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
A G7 democracy rich in energy and minerals that sends about three-quarters of its exports to the US, and is now trying to diversify.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
About 41.5 million people; GDP about US$2.2 trillion. A parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy (King Charles III is head of state), led by Prime Minister Mark Carney. Strengths: the third-largest proven oil reserves, potash, uranium and critical minerals, sound banks, high immigration. Weaknesses: heavy dependence on the US market, weak productivity growth, costly housing. Investing: iShares MSCI Canada (EWC) and similar ETFs; the market leans on big banks, energy and pipelines, railways, miners and Shopify.
Why it matters
A founding NATO member and part of NORAD, Five Eyes and the G7. US tariffs and Trump's '51st state' talk in 2025 pushed it to seek trade in Europe and Asia.
Key facts and numbers
Statistics Canada, IMF and US trade data; oil reserves per the Canada Energy Regulator and the US Energy Information Administration. Figures as of 2026.
What to watch
Outlook: whether Canada can really cut its US dependence, given geography and tightly integrated auto and energy supply chains, is widely doubted but untested.
Inside this (1)
Connections (3)
▸Mark Carney leads CanadaFact
The relationship
Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and prime minister in March 2025, then won his own mandate in April. He sets Canada's response to US pressure, its budgets and defense spending, governing in a closely divided Parliament where he needs some opposition support.
Since when and why
Ottawa; Liberal leadership vote March 9, 2025, sworn in March 14, federal election April 28, 2025, winning 169 of 343 seats.
How we know
Elections Canada official results, Liberal Party leadership results (he won about 86% of members' votes) and the Governor General's swearing-in record.
What to watch
Whether his centrist pivot, dropping carbon pricing and courting energy projects, holds his party together and wins over oil-producing western provinces.
▸Canada is a member of USMCA (US–Mexico–Canada Agreement)Fact
The relationship
Canada joined USMCA as successor to NAFTA and the 1989 US–Canada free-trade deal. It guarantees tariff-free access for most Canadian goods, which mattered in 2025 when USMCA-compliant exports were spared Trump's emergency tariffs, while steel, aluminum, autos and lumber still faced duties.
Since when and why
Signed November 30, 2018 in Buenos Aires; Canada's Parliament ratified it in March 2020; in force July 1, 2020.
How we know
The treaty text, Canada's implementing law (Bill C-4) and Statistics Canada data showing roughly three-quarters of Canadian exports go to the US.
What to watch
Whether the 2026 review keeps Canada's dairy and cultural protections, which Washington wants opened, and whether Ottawa trades them for tariff relief.
▸Canada is a member of Five Eyes intelligence allianceFact
The relationship
Canada joined the UKUSA signals-intelligence pact in 1948. Its Communications Security Establishment covers assigned regions, including the Arctic, and shares intercepts with the others, giving Ottawa intelligence far beyond what it could gather alone. Trade fights with Washington in 2025 raised talk of strain.
Since when and why
Ottawa and Washington, from 1948; in February 2025 White House adviser Peter Navarro reportedly floated expelling Canada, and nothing came of it.
How we know
Declassified UKUSA records, Canadian government statements on CSE's role, and Financial Times reporting on the Navarro idea.
What to watch
How much US–Canada political tension affects daily sharing; officials on both sides say the intelligence relationship remains intact.