Geopolitics › North America › United States
USMCA (US–Mexico–Canada Agreement)
In force July 2020; joint review 2026· Alliance or organization
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
The 2020 trade pact among the US, Mexico and Canada that replaced NAFTA and faces a high-stakes joint review in 2026.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
Signed in 2018 and in force since July 1, 2020, USMCA kept NAFTA's mostly tariff-free trade but tightened auto rules: 75% North American content and a wage floor for part of the work. It added digital-trade and labor rules. In 2025 most goods meeting USMCA rules were spared Trump's emergency tariffs, though steel, aluminum and auto tariffs still hit. The 2026 joint review decides its future: if all three agree, it runs to 2042; if not, annual reviews begin until it expires in 2036.
Why it matters
It governs more than $1.5 trillion a year in goods trade and the supply chains behind North American cars, food and energy. Washington treats the review as leverage for new demands.
Think of it like
Like a lease with a renewal option: if all parties sign in 2026, it extends 16 years; if not, it rolls year to year until 2036.
Key facts and numbers
The agreement text (Article 34.7 sets the review), USTR public hearings held in late 2025, and US Census trade data showing record three-way trade.
What to watch
Outlook: whether the review ends in a clean extension, a renegotiation with new US demands on Chinese parts and investment, or years of annual reviews.
Connections (2)
▸Canada is a member of USMCA (US–Mexico–Canada Agreement)Fact
The relationship
Canada joined USMCA as successor to NAFTA and the 1989 US–Canada free-trade deal. It guarantees tariff-free access for most Canadian goods, which mattered in 2025 when USMCA-compliant exports were spared Trump's emergency tariffs, while steel, aluminum, autos and lumber still faced duties.
Since when and why
Signed November 30, 2018 in Buenos Aires; Canada's Parliament ratified it in March 2020; in force July 1, 2020.
How we know
The treaty text, Canada's implementing law (Bill C-4) and Statistics Canada data showing roughly three-quarters of Canadian exports go to the US.
What to watch
Whether the 2026 review keeps Canada's dairy and cultural protections, which Washington wants opened, and whether Ottawa trades them for tariff relief.
▸Mexico is a member of USMCA (US–Mexico–Canada Agreement)Fact
The relationship
Mexico's export economy runs on USMCA's tariff-free access: about 80% of its exports go to the US. The pact's auto rules and labor provisions, including a fast-track mechanism to probe union abuses at specific factories, shape where carmakers and suppliers build plants.
Since when and why
Signed November 30, 2018; Mexico's Senate ratified it in June 2019 and the amended version in December 2019; in force July 1, 2020.
How we know
The treaty text, Mexican Senate records and the dozens of Rapid Response Labor Mechanism cases the US has brought against Mexican plants since 2021.
What to watch
Whether the US uses the 2026 review to demand that Mexico curb Chinese investment and parts, and how Mexico's new 2026 tariffs on Chinese goods factor in.