Geopolitics › Global issues & flashpoints › 2025–26 US tariffs ('Liberation Day')
US–China trade truce
Busan Oct 2025; extended to Jan 2027· Treaty or event
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
The run of US–China deals since May 2025 that cut tariffs and paused rare-earth curbs, extended as of 2026 to January 2027.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
After tariffs reached 145% and 125% in April 2025, talks in Geneva in May cut them sharply. At Busan on October 30, 2025, Trump and Xi agreed a one-year deal: the US halved its fentanyl tariff to 10% and paused some export-control and port-fee measures; China paused its October 2025 rare-earth controls and resumed buying US soybeans. The leaders met again in Beijing in May 2026 and Washington in September, extending the truce to January 2027.
Why it matters
It halted the most dangerous economic escalation between the two powers and calmed markets, but left chip controls, Taiwan and the deeper rivalry untouched.
Key facts and numbers
White House fact sheets, China's Commerce Ministry statements, Federal Register notices and USDA soybean-sales data. Each side described some terms differently.
What to watch
Outlook: whether the truce survives January 2027, and whether either side reimposes curbs if talks on chips, fentanyl or Taiwan sour.
Connections (3)
▸Critical minerals and rare earths were a key bargaining chip in US–China trade truceFact
The relationship
China refines about 90% of rare earths, needed for magnets in cars, wind turbines and missiles. Its April and October 2025 export controls threatened factories worldwide, and carmakers such as Ford briefly halted lines. At Busan the US cut tariffs and paused its own measures in exchange for China suspending the October controls for a year.
Since when and why
Controls announced by China's Commerce Ministry on April 4 and October 9, 2025; the suspension was agreed at Busan on October 30, 2025.
How we know
China's Commerce Ministry notices, carmakers' 2025 warnings and shutdowns, and the White House fact sheet on the Busan deal.
What to watch
Whether China reimposes the controls if talks sour, and how fast new mines and refineries in the US, Australia and elsewhere reduce dependence.
▸Xi Jinping agreed with Trump on US–China trade truceFact
The relationship
Xi personally negotiated the truce with Trump: meeting him in Busan in October 2025, hosting him in Beijing in May 2026 and visiting Washington in September 2026. China's leverage over rare earths and soybean purchases let him trade pauses for tariff cuts without giving ground on Taiwan or technology.
Since when and why
Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025, beside the APEC summit; Beijing in May 2026; Washington in September 2026.
How we know
Official readouts from both governments, state-media coverage, and the jointly announced extension of the truce to January 2027.
What to watch
How much Xi conceded, given the differing readouts, and whether personal diplomacy with Trump can withstand hawks on both sides.
▸US–China trade truce tempered US–China strategic rivalryWidely agreed
The relationship
The truce lowered the temperature: tariffs fell from triple digits, rare-earth threats paused and the leaders resumed regular summits. But it did not touch the structural contest over chips, AI, Taiwan or military power, so most analysts see managed rivalry rather than détente.
Since when and why
From Geneva in May 2025 through Busan in October 2025 and summits in 2026; current terms run to January 2027.
How solid?
Lower tariff schedules and resumed soybean purchases are documented; the judgment that rivalry continues rests on analysts' assessments, which broadly agree.
What to watch
Outlook: whether the truce becomes a durable framework or collapses in a crisis over Taiwan, the South China Sea or new export controls.