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Rise of Europe's populist right
2010s–· Issue or flashpoint
Widely agreedMost analysts agree.
Nationalist, anti-immigration parties have moved from the fringe to government or first place in polls across much of Europe.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
Since the 2010s, parties like France's National Rally, Germany's AfD, Brothers of Italy, Austria's FPÖ, Reform UK and Hungary's Fidesz have gained on migration, prices and distrust of Brussels. As of 2026 Giorgia Meloni governs Italy, Reform UK topped England's May 2026 local elections, and the AfD won about 44% in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in September. They split on Russia: Orbán and the AfD lean toward Moscow, while Meloni and Poland's PiS are hawkish. Orbán's April 2026 defeat was a major setback.
Why it matters
These parties shape EU policy on migration, climate, Ukraine aid and enlargement, and could win national power in France, Germany or Britain in coming elections.
Key facts and numbers
Election results, European Parliament group seat counts and polling averages document the trend; the labels 'populist' and 'far right' themselves are contested.
What to watch
Whether the wave has peaked, and whether these parties moderate in office, as Meloni largely has, or reshape courts, media and elections, as Orbán did.
Connections (2)
▸Rise of Europe's populist right suffered a major defeat in HungaryFact
The relationship
Orbán was the European populist right's model and organizer, founding the Patriots for Europe group and hosting conservative gatherings. His landslide loss showed that cost of living, corruption and failing services can sink even an entrenched nationalist government, though the winner, Magyar, is himself a former Fidesz insider.
Since when and why
Hungary, April 12, 2026: Tisza won 53% and 141 of 199 seats, Fidesz 38%; turnout was the highest since 1990.
How we know
Official results from Hungary's National Election Office and Orbán's concession on election night.
What to watch
Whether it signals a wider populist decline is doubtful, as the AfD and Reform UK surged in 2026. Analysts debate whether voters rejected Orbán's ideology or just his record.
▸Rise of Europe's populist right campaigns on Migration and border politicsWidely agreed
The relationship
Migration is the populist right's signature issue. The 2015–16 refugee surge, with over a million asylum claims in the EU in 2015, gave parties such as Germany's AfD and France's National Rally a lasting boost. They promise border controls, deportations and tighter asylum rules, and mainstream governments have since adopted parts of that agenda.
Since when and why
Across Europe since 2015, notably in Germany, France, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands and Britain, where Reform UK campaigns against small-boat Channel crossings.
How solid?
Election studies and polls consistently rank immigration as these parties' voters' top concern; party manifestos and Eurostat asylum data back the link.
What to watch
Debated: whether tougher policies by mainstream parties weaken the populists or legitimize them; research results are mixed.