Geopolitics › Global issues & flashpoints › Demographics: aging and population shifts
Migration and border politics
· Issue or flashpoint
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
Movement of people across borders, driven by war, poverty, climate and jobs, and a top political issue in rich democracies.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
The UN counts about 304 million international migrants (2024), about 3.7% of people. UNHCR counts roughly 117–123 million forcibly displaced in 2024–25, at home or abroad; Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Afghanistan and Congo are the largest crises. Migrants sent about $685 billion home to poorer countries in 2024. In rich democracies arrivals drive fierce politics: the US border crackdown since 2025, and the EU's 2024 migration pact, applying from June 2026, which speeds asylum checks and returns.
Why it matters
Aging rich countries need workers, yet migration fuels populist votes and border fights; it also links distant wars, like Sudan's, to politics in Washington, Berlin and Rome.
Key facts and numbers
UN DESA migrant-stock estimates, UNHCR displacement reports, World Bank remittance data, and border agencies' arrest counts (US CBP, the EU's Frontex). Irregular flows are estimates. As of 2026.
What to watch
Outlook: whether climate change drives large new flows, and whether aging countries recruit more legal migrants while closing irregular routes.
Connections (3)
▸US southern border crackdown and mass deportations is a flashpoint in Migration and border politicsFact
The relationship
The US crackdown is one of the hemisphere's biggest migration stories: near-closure of the southern border to asylum, record detention and deportations, and pressure on Mexico and Central American states to hold migrants. It reversed the record arrivals of 2021–24, and some migrants turned back south or sought other destinations.
Since when and why
The US–Mexico border and US cities, since January 20, 2025; the earlier peak came under Biden, with about 250,000 southern-border arrests in December 2023.
How we know
CBP monthly statistics show border arrests at multi-decade lows; ICE detention data and court filings document the interior push. Removal totals are disputed.
What to watch
Whether low crossings outlast the crackdown, and its long-run effects on labor-short industries such as construction, farming and elder care.
▸Rise of Europe's populist right campaigns on Migration and border politicsWidely agreed
The relationship
Migration is the populist right's signature issue. The 2015–16 refugee surge, with over a million asylum claims in the EU in 2015, gave parties such as Germany's AfD and France's National Rally a lasting boost. They promise border controls, deportations and tighter asylum rules, and mainstream governments have since adopted parts of that agenda.
Since when and why
Across Europe since 2015, notably in Germany, France, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands and Britain, where Reform UK campaigns against small-boat Channel crossings.
How solid?
Election studies and polls consistently rank immigration as these parties' voters' top concern; party manifestos and Eurostat asylum data back the link.
What to watch
Debated: whether tougher policies by mainstream parties weaken the populists or legitimize them; research results are mixed.
▸Sudan civil war (army vs RSF) caused the largest displacement in Migration and border politicsFact
The relationship
The war between Sudan's army and the RSF has displaced about 12–13 million people, the world's largest displacement crisis. Most fled within Sudan; around 4 million crossed into Chad, Egypt, South Sudan and other neighbors, straining poor host states. A growing number try to reach Europe through Libya.
Since when and why
Since April 15, 2023, from Khartoum, Darfur and Kordofan into Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, Libya and Uganda.
How we know
UNHCR and IOM displacement tracking, host-government registrations and satellite imagery of camps; counts in a war zone are estimates.
What to watch
How many will return as front lines shift, and whether 2025 aid cuts by the US and other donors worsen hunger and push more people to move.