Battles & Wars › Modern conflicts › Drones and precision strike
Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
September 27 – November 10, 2020· War· Europe
Well documentedSolid records, physical evidence or scientific consensus.
A 44-day war in which Azerbaijan, using Turkish and Israeli drones, defeated Armenian forces and retook the districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and part of it.
See it on the Battles & Wars map →What happened
Nagorno-Karabakh, inside Azerbaijan's borders but mostly Armenian-populated, had been held by Armenian forces since a 1988–94 war. On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched an offensive, citing Armenian shelling. Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli loitering munitions destroyed tanks, artillery and air defenses, and Azerbaijan published the videos. It retook surrounding districts and the town of Shusha (Shushi to Armenians). A Russia-brokered ceasefire on November 10 brought Russian peacekeepers. Roughly 7,000 soldiers died; estimates vary. In 2023 Azerbaijan took the rest, and over 100,000 Armenians fled.
Why it matters
It is often called the first war won largely with drones, and armies worldwide rushed to buy them and rethink air defense.
How we know
Casualty figures from both governments, photo-verified equipment losses compiled by the open-source site Oryx, drone footage released by Azerbaijan, and International Crisis Group reports.
Still debated
Analysts debate how much the drones mattered versus Armenia's outdated air defenses, Azerbaijan's larger oil-funded army, and Turkish support.
Connections (2)
▸Second Nagorno-Karabakh War showcased the battlefield power of Drones and precision strikeWell documented
The connection
Azerbaijan's Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli Harop loitering munitions found and destroyed Armenian tanks, artillery and air defense systems, filming many strikes for propaganda. Drones did not hold ground, but they let a mid-sized army beat dug-in defenders quickly and cheaply.
When and how
Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts, September 27 to November 10, 2020; Turkey supplied the TB2s, Israel the loitering munitions.
How we know
Azerbaijani strike videos, photo-verified losses compiled by Oryx showing hundreds of Armenian vehicles destroyed, and assessments by military analysts.
Debates and open questions
Skeptics argue the drones mainly exposed Armenia's weak, aging air defenses; against a well-defended army they might have fared far worse.
▸Second Nagorno-Karabakh War previewed the drone tactics of Russia–Ukraine warMostly agreed
The connection
Militaries studied Karabakh closely. Ukraine had already bought TB2s, and in early 2022 they struck Russian convoys and air defenses much as in Karabakh. Russia adapted and the TB2s faded, but the lesson that cheap drones can hunt armor returned as millions of small drones over Ukraine.
When and how
Lessons drawn from 2020 on by Ukrainian, Russian and Western planners; TB2s used against Russia's invasion from February 2022.
How sure are we?
Ukraine's TB2 purchases from 2019 and its combat footage are documented, and analysts wrote explicitly of Karabakh as a preview.
Debates and open questions
Whether the lesson was over-learned: Russia's denser air defenses and jamming soon made big drones like the TB2 far less useful in Ukraine.