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Cheap solar, batteries and electric cars
c. 2008–today (solar cell 1954; costs fell ~90% in the 2010s)· Event· Tools, energy & materials
Mostly agreedGood evidence; some details, dates or numbers uncertain.
Since about 2008, mass production has made solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric cars cheap enough to compete with fossil fuels.
See it on the Technology & Medicine map →How it works
Silicon solar cells, invented at Bell Labs in 1954, long powered mainly satellites. Mass production, much of it in China, cut solar panel prices by about 90% in the 2010s, and battery pack prices fell about as much; wind turbines grew huge. By 2024 wind and solar made about 15% of the world's electricity, and electric cars, popularized by Tesla from 2008 and China's BYD, were over a fifth of new car sales.
Why it mattered
In sunny or windy places, new solar and wind are now among the cheapest electricity ever built, shifting energy investment, oil demand forecasts and climate policy.
Think of it like
Like a builder whose tenth identical warehouse costs far less than the first: each doubling of panels made cut prices about 20% (Swanson's law).
How we know
Price series from BloombergNEF, IRENA and Lazard; electricity data from Ember and the International Energy Agency; Bell Labs' 1954 solar-cell announcement.
Still unknown or debated
How fast grids can absorb variable sun and wind, and whether battery storage, transmission lines and mineral supplies can keep pace, is debated.
Inside this (1)
Connections (5)
▸Windmill returned as wind turbines alongside Cheap solar, batteries and electric carsWell documented
The connection
Windmills ground grain and pumped water for about a thousand years. In 1887–88 James Blyth in Scotland and Charles Brush in Ohio used them to make electricity. Danish engineers refined the three-bladed turbine in the 1970s–80s; today's machines often stand over 150 meters tall and, alongside solar, supply much of the world's new power.
When and how
Scotland and Ohio, 1887–88; Denmark's turbine industry from the 1970s; wind farms worldwide today, led by China, the US and Europe.
How we know
Blyth's and Brush's machines are described in period engineering records; the Danish design lineage, through makers like Vestas, is well recorded; Ember and the IEA track wind output.
Debates and open questions
How far wind can grow depends on grid connections, local opposition, offshore costs and supply chains; recycling old turbine blades is still largely unsolved.
▸Internal combustion engine and the car is being electrified by Cheap solar, batteries and electric carsWell documented
The connection
Since Benz's 1886 car, road transport has run mostly on gasoline and diesel, now roughly a sixth of global carbon dioxide emissions. Cheap lithium-ion batteries let electric motors, simpler and about three times as efficient, compete. Electric and plug-in hybrid cars were nearly half of China's new car sales in 2024, steadily displacing combustion engines.
When and how
Electric cars were common in US cities around 1900 before gasoline won; the revival began with Tesla's Roadster (2008), the Nissan Leaf (2010) and Chinese makers such as BYD.
How we know
Sales data from the IEA and national car associations; carmakers' announced phase-outs of combustion models; national emissions inventories.
Debates and open questions
How fast the shift will go outside China and Europe, and whether hybrids, charging gaps or tariffs will slow it, is debated.
▸Transistor led, via silicon solar cells, to Cheap solar, batteries and electric carsMostly agreed
The connection
Transistor work made Bell Labs expert at purifying and doping silicon, adding traces of other elements to control its electrical behavior. In 1954 Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson used that know-how to make the first practical silicon solar cell, about 6% efficient. Transistor-based power electronics also run solar inverters, wind turbines and electric car motors.
When and how
Bell Labs, Murray Hill, New Jersey: transistor 1947, solar cell announced April 1954; cells powered the Vanguard 1 satellite in 1958.
How sure are we?
Bell Labs records and the 1954 announcement tie the solar cell to transistor-era silicon research; Fuller had developed doping methods for transistors.
Debates and open questions
Solar cells also built on earlier discoveries, the photovoltaic effect (Becquerel, 1839) and selenium cells (1883), so the transistor is one root among several.
▸Nuclear power stations compete as low-carbon power with Cheap solar, batteries and electric carsMostly agreed
The connection
Nuclear plants, like wind and solar, make electricity with almost no carbon emissions, and they supplied about 9% of world electricity in 2023. But new reactors have become slow and costly to build while solar and wind costs fell sharply; wind and solar together passed nuclear output in 2021. Planners now weigh steady nuclear against cheaper, weather-dependent renewables plus batteries.
When and how
Worldwide since the 2010s; examples include Georgia's Vogtle reactors, finished in 2023–24, years late, and China, which builds both nuclear and renewables fastest.
How sure are we?
Cost comparisons by Lazard and the IEA; generation data from Ember; construction records of delayed projects such as Vogtle, Flamanville and Hinkley Point.
Debates and open questions
Whether small modular reactors will make nuclear cheaper, and what mix of nuclear and renewables gives the most reliable grid, is debated.
▸Lithium-ion battery stores power for Cheap solar, batteries and electric carsWell documented
The connection
Solar and wind produce power only when the sun shines or the wind blows, and cars need stored energy. Lithium-ion batteries address both: pack prices fell about 90% from 2010 to 2023, making electric cars affordable and letting grid-scale battery farms store midday solar for evening use, as in California and Australia.
When and how
Tesla's battery packs from 2008; South Australia's Hornsdale battery, 2017; California's large grid batteries in the 2020s; Chinese makers CATL and BYD now dominate production.
How we know
BloombergNEF's annual battery price surveys; California grid operator data showing batteries supplying a large share of evening demand.
Debates and open questions
Whether lithium supply, cobalt mining conditions and recycling can keep pace, and whether cheaper sodium-ion or longer-duration storage will take over, is debated.