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Elon Musk: "one in billions"
2016· Person
PhilosophyAn argument about reality that science can't test (yet).
Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX entrepreneur, said in 2016 that the odds we live in base reality are one in billions.
See it on the Science map →How it works
Speaking at the Code Conference in June 2016, Musk argued: video games went from simple Pong about 40 years earlier to near-photorealistic 3D worlds. Extend that progress and games become indistinguishable from reality. If so, there could be billions of such simulations and only one base reality, so we are probably in a simulation. This is a popular restatement of Nick Bostrom's 2003 argument, not a scientific finding.
Why it matters
His comment brought the simulation hypothesis to a huge audience and made it a common topic in tech culture.
How the work held up
None; it is philosophy. The argument assumes progress continues, that minds can be simulated, and that civilizations choose to run such simulations. Physics offers no test supporting the "one in billions" figure.
Still a mystery
The odds rest on unknowable assumptions; the number is an intuition, not a calculation from data.
Connections (2)
▸Elon Musk: "one in billions" popularized The simulation hypothesisPhilosophy
The relationship
Musk retold the argument with a video-game twist, saying games went from Pong to realism in about 40 years and will become indistinguishable from reality. With billions of such worlds and one base reality, he argued we are likely simulated. His fame pushed the idea into mainstream conversation.
How the link was found
Elon Musk, Code Conference, June 2016, in response to an audience question.
Is it proven?
No proof. It assumes continued progress and that simulations would be run and contain conscious minds. It is an opinion, not a scientific result.
Open questions and mysteries
Whether better graphics have anything to do with simulating minds and physics is doubtful.
▸Elon Musk: "one in billions" borrowed the argument of Nick BostromPhilosophy
The relationship
Musk's simulation claim is a simplified version of Bostrom's third option, that we are probably simulated. Bostrom's original treats this as one of three possibilities; Musk effectively assumes the other two, civilizations dying out or choosing not to simulate, are unlikely.
How the link was found
Musk's 2016 remarks followed Bostrom's 2003 paper, which was widely discussed in Silicon Valley.
Is it proven?
The resemblance is clear from both arguments. Neither is supported by experiment.
Open questions and mysteries
Bostrom's own view of the probabilities is more cautious than Musk's "one in billions."