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Christianity's shift to the Global South

1970s – today· Event· Judaism, Christianity & Islam

Mostly agreed by scholarsMost historians agree; some details uncertain.

The movement of Christianity's center of gravity from Europe and North America to Africa, Latin America and Asia.

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What it is

In 1910 about two-thirds of the world's Christians lived in Europe; by 2010 only about a quarter did. Africa's Christians grew from roughly 10 million in 1900 to about 700 million today (estimates vary), and by 2020 sub-Saharan Africa held more Christians than any other region. Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines, Nigeria and DR Congo now rank among the largest Christian countries. Growth comes from high birth rates, conversion, and Pentecostal and independent churches led by local pastors.

Why it matters

As historian Philip Jenkins put it, the typical Christian is now a woman in a Nigerian village or a Brazilian favela, reshaping church politics, theology and debates over sexuality.

Sources and history

Pew Research Center's global reports (2011, 2025), the World Christian Database, national censuses, and Philip Jenkins's 'The Next Christendom' (2002).

Questions and debates

Whether African and Asian Christianity will keep growing, or secularize with rising wealth and education as South Korea partly has, is unknown.

Connections (4)

▸Global Christian missions and empire planted churches leading to Christianity's shift to the Global SouthMostly agreed by scholars

The connection

Nineteenth- and 20th-century missions founded churches, schools and hospitals across Africa, Asia and Latin America and translated the Bible into hundreds of local languages. But the steepest growth came after independence in the 1960s, under African and Asian leaders and independent churches, as converts made Christianity their own.

When and where

Africa, Asia and Latin America, 1800s–today; the 1910 Edinburgh Missionary Conference; growth surging in Africa after about 1960.

How do we know?

Church membership statistics, censuses, and historians Andrew Walls and Lamin Sanneh, whose 'Translating the Message' (1989) traced the role of local languages.

Questions and debates

Scholars debate how much growth came from missionaries versus local evangelists and independent churches, and how far missions were tied to colonial power.

▸Christianity's shift to the Global South is driven largely by Pentecostalism (Azusa Street Revival)Mostly agreed by scholars

The connection

Pentecostal and charismatic Christianity, centered on direct experience of the Holy Spirit, healing and prophecy, fits local beliefs in spiritual power and needs no seminary-trained clergy. It spreads through small, independent churches. Most of its estimated 600 million adherents live in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

When and where

Booming from the 1970s in Brazil, Guatemala, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, South Korea and the Philippines.

How do we know?

The World Christian Database, Pew's 2006 ten-country survey of Pentecostals, and Brazil's censuses showing Catholics falling from about 90% in 1970 to under 60% in 2022.

Questions and debates

Counts vary widely because 'charismatic' is loosely defined; scholars debate the prosperity gospel's role and whether the growth will last.

▸Christianity's shift to the Global South contrasts with the Western Rise of the 'nones' (no religion)Mostly agreed by scholars

The connection

Christianity's map is being redrawn from both ends. In Europe, North America and Australia, people leave Christianity mostly for no religion, while Africa's young, fast-growing population adds Christians. Pew found Christians' share of humanity fell from about 31% to 29% between 2010 and 2020 even as Africa's Christian numbers soared.

When and where

2010–2020, Pew Research Center's 2025 global report; sub-Saharan Africa overtook Europe as home to the most Christians by 2020.

How do we know?

Pew's analysis of more than 2,700 censuses and surveys covering 201 countries and territories.

Questions and debates

Whether the Global South will secularize as it urbanizes and grows richer, as parts of East Asia have, is an open question.

▸Pope Francis embodied Christianity's shift to the Global SouthMostly agreed by scholars

The connection

Francis, from Argentina, was the first pope from outside Europe in about 1,300 years, reflecting that roughly 4 in 10 Catholics live in Latin America. He named cardinals from places like Tonga, Myanmar and Mongolia, so Europeans were a minority of the voters who chose his successor in 2025, and he stressed the poor and the 'peripheries'.

When and where

Elected March 13, 2013; cardinal appointments 2014–2024; trips including the Central African Republic (2015) and DR Congo and South Sudan (2023).

How do we know?

Vatican statistics, the published makeup of the College of Cardinals, and his writings such as 'Evangelii Gaudium' (2013).

Questions and debates

Whether the Global South focus will last under Leo XIV, an American who served long in Peru, is open; African bishops resisted some reforms.