Geopolitics › Global issues & flashpoints › US–China strategic rivalry
New space race
US Space Force 2019; China Moon goal 2030· Issue or flashpoint
Widely agreedMost analysts agree.
Rivalry, mostly between the US and China, over the Moon, satellites and the military uses of space.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
The US created the Space Force in December 2019. China completed its Tiangong space station in 2022, brought back the first samples from the Moon's far side in 2024 and aims to land astronauts before 2030. NASA's Artemis program aims to return Americans to the lunar surface later this decade; over 50 countries have signed its Artemis Accords, while China and Russia plan a rival lunar base. SpaceX's Starlink, with thousands of satellites, proved its military value in Ukraine.
Why it matters
Satellites now underpin navigation, communications, missile warning and targeting, so space is a battlefield in its own right and the Moon a prestige race.
Key facts and numbers
NASA and China National Space Administration announcements, tracked mission data, the Artemis Accords signatory list, and US Space Force and intelligence threat reports.
What to watch
Outlook: whether Chinese astronauts reach the Moon before NASA's next landing, which has slipped repeatedly, and whether weapons in orbit become routine.
Connections (2)
▸New space race features a Moon race with China (People's Republic of China)Widely agreed
The relationship
China is NASA's main rival for the Moon. Its Chang'e probes made the first far-side landing in 2019 and returned far-side samples in 2024. It is testing the Long March 10 rocket and Lanyue lander to put astronauts on the Moon before 2030, and plans a research station with Russia.
Since when and why
Launches from Wenchang on Hainan island and from Jiuquan; Chang'e 4 (2019), Chang'e 5 (2020) and Chang'e 6 (2024).
How solid?
China National Space Administration and state-media announcements, independently tracked launches, and published research on the returned samples.
What to watch
Whether China lands astronauts before NASA's next landing, and who secures the scarce water-ice regions near the lunar south pole.
▸New space race is a front in US–China strategic rivalryWidely agreed
The relationship
Space mirrors the wider rivalry: the US and China compete for prestige on the Moon, build rival satellite constellations, and prepare to blind or disrupt each other's satellites in a war. The US Space Force says China operates over 1,000 satellites, many usable for surveillance and targeting.
Since when and why
Low Earth orbit and the Moon; China's 2007 anti-satellite test created vast debris; the US Space Force was founded in December 2019.
How solid?
US Space Force and intelligence threat reports, public satellite catalogs and China's published space plans; Beijing says it opposes space weapons and accuses Washington of militarizing space.
What to watch
Whether norms against debris-causing tests and orbital weapons take hold, and how commercial fleets like Starlink would be treated in a conflict.