Geopolitics › Global issues & flashpoints › US–China strategic rivalry
Semiconductors and chip export controls
US controls since Oct 2022· Resource or chokepoint
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
The microchips that run phones, cars, AI and weapons, and the US controls since 2022 that limit China's access to the most advanced ones.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
Chipmaking is concentrated: Taiwan's TSMC makes most leading-edge processors, South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix most memory, the Netherlands' ASML the only extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines, and US firms the key designs and software. Since October 2022 the US has restricted exports of advanced chips and chipmaking tools to China, later joined by the Netherlands and Japan. China answered with curbs on gallium, germanium and rare earths, and Huawei and SMIC have narrowed part of the gap.
Why it matters
Chips are the bottleneck of the digital economy and modern militaries; whoever controls their supply holds leverage over AI and over rivals' industries.
Key facts and numbers
US Commerce Department export rules, Dutch and Japanese control notices, market-share data from TrendForce and the Semiconductor Industry Association, and teardowns of Huawei phones.
What to watch
Outlook: whether Huawei and SMIC can make cutting-edge chips at scale without EUV machines, and how long the lead of TSMC and its allies lasts.
Connections (4)
▸TSMC and Taiwan's chip dominance anchors Semiconductors and chip export controlsFact
The relationship
TSMC makes most of the world's leading-edge chips, so export controls and chip diplomacy revolve around it. US rules bar it from making advanced chips for Huawei and other Chinese firms, and Washington pressed it to build in Arizona. Its concentration in Taiwan is widely seen as the chip world's biggest single point of failure.
Since when and why
Hsinchu and Tainan in Taiwan, plus Arizona; US rules cut off Huawei in 2020, and TSMC halted advanced AI-chip orders for Chinese clients in November 2024.
How we know
Market-share data from TrendForce and Counterpoint, US Commerce Department orders, TSMC filings, and 2024 teardowns that found TSMC-made dies in Huawei chips.
What to watch
How long TSMC's lead lasts, whether its US plants can make the newest chips at scale, and what would happen to its Taiwan fabs in a blockade.
▸South Korea (Republic of Korea) is a memory-chip powerhouse in Semiconductors and chip export controlsFact
The relationship
Samsung and SK Hynix make most of the world's DRAM memory, and SK Hynix leads in the high-bandwidth memory inside Nvidia's AI chips. Chips are about a fifth of Korea's exports. US controls limit upgrades at their big plants in China, and Washington used tariff threats to win new US investment.
Since when and why
Samsung in Pyeongtaek and Giheung, SK Hynix in Icheon; China plants in Xi'an, Wuxi and Dalian; US projects in Texas and Indiana.
How we know
Market-share data from TrendForce and Counterpoint, Korea's trade ministry export figures and US Commerce Department license decisions.
What to watch
Whether Korean firms keep their China plants as US rules tighten, and whether Samsung can catch SK Hynix in AI memory.
▸Semiconductors and chip export controls restrict advanced chips for China (People's Republic of China)Fact
The relationship
US rules since October 2022 bar sales to China of top AI chips and of tools to make advanced chips; the Netherlands and Japan added tool curbs. The aim is to slow China's military and AI progress. China answered with stockpiling, a $47 billion state chip fund in 2024, and curbs on gallium, germanium and rare earths.
Since when and why
Rules from the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security in October 2022, October 2023 and December 2024; Dutch and Japanese controls from 2023.
How we know
The published export rules, Nvidia and ASML filings showing lost China sales, and teardowns showing Huawei's 7-nanometer chips made by SMIC.
What to watch
Debated: whether controls slow China or speed its self-reliance; Trump's 2025 decisions to let Nvidia sell some chips to China for a revenue share blurred the policy.
▸AI race (US vs China) runs on Semiconductors and chip export controlsFact
The relationship
Training and running frontier AI takes vast numbers of advanced chips, mostly Nvidia designs built by TSMC with Korean memory. That makes chips Washington's main lever: export controls aim to cap China's computing power, while Chinese labs such as DeepSeek squeeze more from fewer or older chips.
Since when and why
Data centers in the US and China; DeepSeek said it trained its V3 model on about 2,000 Nvidia H800 chips, a version sold legally before October 2023.
How we know
Company disclosures, Nvidia earnings, computing estimates from Epoch AI, and US export rules that explicitly target AI chips.
What to watch
Whether smarter software can offset fewer chips, and whether smuggling of controlled chips through third countries undermines the controls.