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Pacific Islands influence contest
China–Solomons pact 2022· Issue or flashpoint
Widely agreedMost analysts agree.
A contest pitting China against Australia, the US and New Zealand for influence over the small island states scattered across the Pacific.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
About 14 independent island states, small in people but vast in ocean, hold rich tuna stocks and sit astride sea lanes between the US and Australia. China won Solomon Islands and Kiribati away from Taiwan in 2019 and Nauru in 2024, signed a security pact with Solomon Islands in 2022 and sent police trainers. The West answered: US aid compacts renewed for $7.1 billion, and Australian treaties with Tuvalu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea (mutual defense, 2025) and Vanuatu (2026), several limiting other powers' security roles.
Why it matters
Bases or ports here could cut sea routes between the US and Australia, as Japan tried in World War II; island votes count at the UN, and three of Taiwan's 12 diplomatic allies are here.
Key facts and numbers
Treaty texts, the leaked 2022 China–Solomons draft agreement, and the Lowy Institute's Pacific Aid Map of aid flows. As of 2026.
What to watch
Disputed: whether China seeks military bases, which it denies; island leaders say climate change, not great-power rivalry, is their top security threat.
Connections (2)
▸Australia competes for influence in Pacific Islands influence contestFact
The relationship
Australia, the region's largest aid donor, answered China's moves with security treaties: a 2023 pact with Tuvalu, a 2024 deal with Nauru, the 'Pukpuk' mutual-defense treaty with Papua New Guinea in October 2025 and a A$500 million agreement with Vanuatu in 2026. Several limit the islands' security ties with other powers.
Since when and why
Signed with Tuvalu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu between 2023 and 2026, under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
How we know
Treaty texts published by Australia's foreign ministry and the Lowy Institute's Pacific Aid Map.
What to watch
Whether island governments see the deals as protection or as limits on sovereignty; Vanuatu delayed signing in 2025 over that concern.
▸China (People's Republic of China) signed a Solomon Islands security pact in Pacific Islands influence contestFact
The relationship
China signed a security agreement with Solomon Islands allowing Chinese police and, per a leaked draft, possibly troops and ship visits. It alarmed Australia, less than 2,000 km away, which answered with security treaties with Tuvalu, Nauru and Papua New Guinea. A wider China–Pacific security deal was rejected in 2022.
Since when and why
Solomon Islands switched recognition from Taiwan to Beijing in 2019 and signed the pact in April 2022; Chinese police trainers have worked there since.
How we know
The leaked draft, statements by the Solomon Islands and Chinese governments, and Australian treaty records; the final text is unpublished.
What to watch
Whether China seeks a naval base in the Pacific, which both governments deny, and whether other island states sign similar deals.