Geopolitics › Global issues & flashpoints › Strait of Hormuz
2026 oil price shock
Brent ~$72 to ~$120, Feb–Mar 2026· Treaty or event
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
The surge in oil prices after Iran choked the Strait of Hormuz during the 2026 war, from about $72 to nearly $120 a barrel.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
When the US–Israel war on Iran began on February 28, 2026, Iran restricted shipping through Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of world oil. Insurers pulled cover and tanker traffic collapsed. Brent crude rose from about $72 a barrel to nearly $120 in March, one of the sharpest monthly jumps on record; Iranian strikes also cut Qatar's LNG exports, lifting gas prices in Europe and Asia. An April truce and a June deal eased prices; the deal's July collapse kept them volatile.
Why it matters
Oil shocks feed inflation, keep interest rates higher and slow growth; for property owners that means pricier debt and upward pressure on cap rates.
Key facts and numbers
ICE Brent futures prices, IEA and US EIA market reports, ship-tracking data from Kpler and others, and QatarEnergy statements. As of 2026.
What to watch
Outlook: how long prices stay high, which hinges on Hormuz reopening, Gulf repairs and the war's endgame; the knock-on effect on rate cuts is debated.
Connections (3)
▸US–Israel war with Iran (2026) caused 2026 oil price shockFact
The relationship
The war hit oil through Hormuz: Iran blocked ships without its approval and attacked vessels, cutting off much of the Gulf's exports, while strikes damaged Qatar's LNG plants. Saudi and UAE pipelines bypassed only part. Brent jumped from about $72 to nearly $120; prices eased with the April truce and June deal, then rose when they collapsed.
Since when and why
From February 28, 2026, peaking in March; truces in April and June broke down by July 8, followed by a renewed US blockade.
How we know
Brent futures moving with war news day by day, ship-tracking data showing collapsed tanker traffic, and IEA reports on lost supply.
What to watch
How much of the spike reflected lost barrels versus fear and insurance costs, and how fast Gulf exports recover once shipping resumes.
▸2026 oil price shock hit Asian importers like JapanWidely agreed
The relationship
Japan imports over 90% of its crude from the Middle East, most of it through Hormuz, so Iran's restrictions on the strait hit it fast. Tokyo released private reserves and then 30 days' worth of state reserves, its first state release since 2022, as refiners scrambled for cargoes from the Americas and Africa.
Since when and why
Private-reserve releases began March 16, 2026 and state releases March 26, as Brent spiked toward $120; South Korea, India and China were also exposed.
How solid?
Japan's trade ministry (METI) announcements, customs import data and International Energy Agency reports.
What to watch
How much lasting inflation the shock adds, and whether Japan speeds nuclear restarts or diversifies supply as a result.
▸2026 oil price shock lifted revenue for Russia's war economy under sanctionsWidely agreed
The relationship
When Brent jumped from about $72 to near $120 in March 2026, Russia's Urals crude rose with it as demand for non-Gulf barrels surged. Russian oil and gas revenues in May were about 40% higher than a year earlier, easing a budget squeezed by sanctions and discounts.
Since when and why
Global oil markets, March–July 2026; tracked in Russian Finance Ministry monthly revenue data.
How solid?
Russian Finance Ministry figures and analysis by Reuters, Bloomberg and intelliNews; even so, January–August 2026 oil and gas revenues were about 17% below 2025.
What to watch
Most analysts agree prices helped; how much the windfall extends Russia's war chest, given swings in the Iran war and a still-widening deficit, is debated.