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NATO pledge: 5% of GDP on defense by 2035
Agreed June 2025, The Hague· Treaty or event
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
At The Hague in June 2025, NATO allies pledged to spend 5% of GDP a year on defense and security by 2035.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
The pledge splits into at least 3.5% of GDP for core defense, meaning troops, weapons and operations, and up to 1.5% for related spending such as military-ready roads, bridges and ports, cyber defense and civil preparedness. Allies submit yearly plans on a 'credible, incremental path', with a review in 2029. It replaces the 2% goal set in 2014, which all allies reached only in 2025. Spain won flexibility, saying it needs about 2.1%.
Why it matters
It is the largest planned rise in Western defense spending since the Cold War, reshaping budgets, debt and arms industries; supporters say Russia's threat demands it.
Key facts and numbers
The Hague Summit Declaration of June 25, 2025, NATO's annual defence expenditure reports, and national budget plans, such as Germany's aim to reach 3.5% by 2029.
What to watch
Outlook: whether allies follow through by 2035, how much of the loosely defined 1.5% gets padded with ordinary infrastructure, and whether high-debt countries can afford it.
Connections (3)
▸America First foreign policy (Trump second term) pressed allies into NATO pledge: 5% of GDP on defense by 2035Fact
The relationship
Trump long accused Europeans of free-riding on US protection, and in 2024 said he would encourage Russia to do as it wished with allies that underpay. In January 2025 he demanded 5% of GDP. Allies, fearing US disengagement, agreed at The Hague that June. Trump hailed a win; NATO chief Mark Rutte credited his pressure.
Since when and why
Trump's demand at a January 7, 2025 press conference; pledge agreed at the NATO summit in The Hague, June 24–25, 2025.
How we know
Trump's public statements, Rutte's pre-summit message praising him, and the Hague declaration's 5% text; allies' own budgets also cite Russia's threat.
What to watch
Debated: how much credit goes to US pressure versus Russia's war in Ukraine, which had already pushed European defense spending up sharply since 2022.
▸European rearmament (ReArm Europe) aims to meet NATO pledge: 5% of GDP on defense by 2035Fact
The relationship
Europe's rearmament is largely the means to meet the 5% pledge: the EU's SAFE loans and relaxed deficit rules, Germany's exemption of defense from its debt brake and big national budgets all aim at the 3.5% core-defense level. Only 23 of 32 allies met even 2% in 2024, so the gap is large.
Since when and why
European capitals and Brussels from March 2025; Poland, the Baltic states and the Nordic countries move fastest, while Spain lags.
How we know
NATO's 2025 expenditure estimates, EU legal texts on SAFE and the defense escape clause, and national plans such as Germany's path to 3.5% by 2029.
What to watch
Outlook: whether money buys real capability or just inflated prices for scarce weapons, and whether voters accept cuts elsewhere to pay for it.
▸NATO adopted NATO pledge: 5% of GDP on defense by 2035Fact
The relationship
NATO's 32 leaders adopted the 5% pledge by consensus at The Hague, replacing the 2% guideline. NATO tracks progress using its own definitions of what counts as defense spending, and allies submit annual plans. Spain's prime minister Pedro Sánchez won a side letter giving it flexibility to plan a lower figure, which Trump criticized.
Since when and why
The Hague, Netherlands, June 24–25, 2025, NATO's first summit under Secretary General Mark Rutte.
How we know
The summit declaration and NATO's published defense expenditure tables, which it updates each year.
What to watch
Whether NATO's accounting stays strict, and whether the 2029 review trims the target if Russia's threat eases or budgets buckle.