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Bangladesh
Hasina ousted 2024; BNP won Feb 2026· Country
FactTreaties, membership, measured data, events.
A Muslim-majority nation of about 175 million and the world's second-largest garment exporter, rebuilding democracy after a 2024 uprising.
See it on the Geopolitics map →The picture
GDP about $450 billion. A parliamentary republic. Student-led protests toppled Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 after 15 years; the UN estimated up to 1,400 were killed. After an interim government under Muhammad Yunus, the BNP won the February 12, 2026 election in a landslide (209 of 297 seats) and Tarique Rahman became prime minister. Strengths: garments (over 80% of exports), remittances. Weaknesses: climate exposure, weak banks, about a million Rohingya refugees. Investing: a frontier market, reached mainly through frontier funds.
Why it matters
Bordered almost entirely by India, it sits at the head of the Bay of Bengal; its tilt between India, China and Pakistan shapes regional trade and security.
Key facts and numbers
Election Commission results, the UN human-rights office's February 2025 report on the 2024 crackdown, and World Bank and export data. As of 2026.
What to watch
Outlook: whether the BNP government can reset ties with India while demanding Hasina's extradition, and how exporters cope with a planned exit from UN least-developed status.
Connections (2)
▸Bangladesh cooled toward IndiaWidely agreed
The relationship
India was Sheikh Hasina's closest partner, so her fall cooled Dhaka's ties with Delhi. She fled to India, which has not extradited her despite a death sentence in absentia. The interim government courted China and Pakistan, and India curbed some trade routes. The BNP government elected in 2026 seeks a reset but presses the Hasina issue.
Since when and why
Since August 2024; India ended a transshipment facility in April 2025, and a Dhaka tribunal sentenced Hasina on November 17, 2025.
How solid?
Official statements from both capitals, trade-restriction notices and 2026 reporting on stalled visit plans; most analysts agree ties cooled.
What to watch
Whether the 1996 Ganges water-sharing treaty, which expires in December 2026, is renewed, and how India handles the extradition demand.
▸Bangladesh is highly exposed to Climate change and the ArcticWidely agreed
The relationship
Most of Bangladesh is a low delta of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers. Rising seas, fed partly by melting Greenland and Antarctic ice, push saltwater into farmland, while cyclones and floods displace millions. Studies suggest a one-meter rise could flood roughly a sixth of its land, home to millions of people.
Since when and why
The coastal belt and Sundarbans mangroves; Cyclone Sidr in 2007 killed about 3,400 people (estimates vary); floods in August 2024 affected about 5 million.
How solid?
Widely agreed: IPCC reports, World Bank climate studies and Bangladesh disaster data; land sinking and shifting rivers complicate the projections.
What to watch
How many people will move (estimates of internal climate migrants by 2050 range from about 13 to 20 million), and whether embankments and adaptation keep pace.